Investors if the stock market is a manifestation of macro-economic confidence, then the first 7 months of this year the trend of A shares can be as investors in financial crisis and the future of China's economy in the current period reflects the expected good. But since August, the stock market crash consecutive cases, once main stock index slid more than 500 points, the resulting crash is not only filled with pessimism among investors in the stock market, but also spread to a wider range of people for some time in the future confidence in China's macro economy, then the collapse in the end this is about the Chinese economy into a recession signal, we learn from what lessons this fall?
To answer these questions, you must first start from the analytical reason for collapse. Now, the mainstream critics sound almost unanimously that the drop in monetary policy caused investors and the stock market expected to fall on ample liquidity, specifically is expected in the second half of liquidity will be reduced, thus pushing up the stock market's power shortage, the market is expected to decline, resulting in investors dumped, thereby causing the stock market crash. boosted the liquidity of the stock market point of view I have held opposing views, the specific logic not elaborate, even if the facts can not prove in front of the first 7 months of the bull market is called market liquidity.
we may wish to use reductio ad absurdum to illustrate the problem, assuming that in the first half of the stock market is the market liquidity, then the second half Even a moderately tight monetary policy does not mean that liquidity will be reduced,UGG boots, but that the incremental liquidity may be reduced, while the absolute amount is still rising, according to the logic of market liquidity, this would put the second half of the stock market slow it, that does not crash Yes. more convincing explanation is that the second half of the first half of the expected delivery will increase liquidity, resulting in expectations too high, so the result in the first half rose,UGGs, and when to adjust monetary policy announcement, expected before the market finds the wrong, which way the stock market fell to correct with the previous error.
this argument sounds reasonable, but there are two questions: First, monetary policy is the last U.S. financial crisis After the outbreak has been the salvation of Governments as the main policies have adopted, although China was not immediately take action, but on the loose monetary policy is expected as early as the third quarter of last year has been quite enthusiastic, but then how did the stock market rise, but continues to have fallen by the end of it? Second, put too much liquidity in the first half, second half of the information may be appropriate to adjust back in May has been widely circulated in the market, why do not expect monetary tightening in June appeared in July, it must wait until August? Please note: June and July the stock market not only failed to adjust, but is rising the fastest two months, which is the front view is logically inconsistent. So, to get monetary policy to explain the fall not withstand scrutiny.
However, bonds are the main grievances are the first who actually smashed the stock market so big a hole must have a reason, and I believe that future research in this area there will be a convincing conclusion I do not want to give my conclusion right away. But now the case only in respect, I think we have at least three lessons is well worth the lessons.
lesson one, authorities must release a scientific basis to the market signals, must the issue can not release information too freely .7 28, the central bank issued a second quarter report on macroeconomic performance, the next day, that is, 3 years the most). Although we can not definitely link these two, but one well worth thinking about some of the central bank reported that expected to signal that inflation is what? of the stock market's the same expected return of investment in increasing the market capitalization rate conditions, the stock values have declined. In particular, this year's bull market is largely , the central bank's conclusions really scientific, reliable and up?
author August 3, wrong for others to judge it, I do not want to say more, but I remind you that, on the central bank report released a week later, on Aug. 7, the central bank Deputy Governor Su Ning, held four ministries in the news publicly declared at the meeting: Please note that this is only a hypothesis, suppose the central bank report on the conclusions of inflation expectations is indeed wrong, then the report is undoubtedly interfere with the market is that noise can affect the stock market although partial equilibrium, but does not change the long-run equilibrium, that is, from a longer perspective, the stock market will be in accordance with its original direction to run.
lessons Second, if bailout things could get no historical data that must be committed to changing market expectations. to fall in this round of expected results, but is to continue to fall, and even a well, implying that, in the first half of the stock market is a performance support,cheap UGG boots, and therefore no problem in the first half of the stock market, investors need not change sides. On the surface, nothing wrong with this sentence, in the first half of the stock market did nothing wrong, the investment do not worry about those so-called market correction, but why do not play the role of holding stability? engage finance people know that the stock market is always the future, the trend of stock prices always reflect investor uncertainty about the future value judgments, has nothing to do with the historical data. a long time, people will engage in security analysis to find the so-called historical data from the law, not knowing the future is not history repeating itself (some only occasionally), so this analysis is essentially worthless , but unfortunately, this idea is not only deeply affected many investors, but also affect some decision-making sector think tank, the current interpretation of some of the lessons of good policy mistakes rescue invalid root. < br> lesson three, information disclosure is always the basis for the normal operation of the stock market, which is the best weapon to rescue the market. On this round of the fall there is a saying that there must be disclosure of bad news has not been so few hands, so some people early on, precisely reflects the fear of investors on these issues. how to improve these problems can only be an afterthought, but now the case, we still have a lot of work to do,UGG boots cheap, such as you might fear for the economic data must be timely, accurate and fair disclosure, do not worry about some bad data may cause the stock market has fallen worse, the fact is, as long as the market is symmetric information, the information has stabilized and even the effectiveness of the disclosure.
1996, the heady Intel hit losses amounted to $ 200,000,000! accordance with the general imagination, so much the loss of Intel's stock has not dropped Why? the most plausible explanation is that once the disclosure of information in a timely manner, the market worried about the uncertainty into certainty, and certainty is not price-sensitive, so the news seems bad hand, the market calm. This It appears that information disclosure may really have stabilized other? The question is, is there in the end we should let the market know that the information but did not open? If so, the only correct approach is to disclosure, rather than dodge. Even Without such information, we should also think carefully about it possible misunderstanding of information, word, decision-making information more transparent, more stable market.
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