I voluntarily give up the treatment

 Helpless father
have a beautiful little girl, her name was She-yan, she has a pair of sparkling eyes, she has a bright childlike innocence. She was an orphan, she was living in this world is only 8 years She left in the world's last words were dance, she turned
will see them travel wild goose. She voluntarily gave up treatment to Chinese around the world donated money to help her 540,000 yuan is divided into 7 copies of the cake of life, respectively, as a hope to the 7 wandering in the line between the positive children.
I voluntarily gave up treatment
she was born I do not know his parents, she only adopted her Lunar New Year is October 20 that year, as films, says: this child, I am afraid no one would marry into the house even had. look at his arms as
trained, trained, kitten crying baby, She Shiyou down and picked up a few times, turned away and looked back, the little cries of life has been covered with ice-cold weak, then I'm afraid nobody would have died at any time! bite the bullet, why have meet, he again picked up the baby, sighed a
gas:
She Shiyou Yan She's called the children because she was a child born in the autumn harvest season. bachelor and became a father, no milk,
could not afford milk, they can only feed the rice soup, so young She Yan ill health, but very clever sensible. spring to spring and back, as the bitter vine flower, Yan She grew up, and surprisingly cleverness, neighbors, picked up the doll say
high IQ, like her. Although childhood illnesses, fear of the father, Yan She grew slowly.
Bitter child does not in general, from 5 years of age, she learned to help my father to share the housework, laundry , cooking, mowing her everything well, she knew she was not home with the kids not the same, do not father a child home mother, only her own home, and father, her father and the family to rely on a up support, she behaved very well behaved, not to father a little bit more worried about a little bit of raw gas.
in elementary school, She Yan know what to study to make improvements to test first, illiterate father in the village will look good, she had never let my father down. She sang to my father, the school took place as interesting as listening to Dad tell Dad
to get a small red earners each carefully thin on the wall, occasionally playfully hh debut title baffled father smile when I see my father, she would secretly meet: This matter sorted father live happily, and very happy. becomes red, a look, is positive nose dripping blood, no matter what measures will not stop. is really no way to take her to rural hospitals injection Sheshi You can also bleeding a little eye of a needle She also appeared on the legs
large number of . alone, sitting on a bench press and hold the nose, nose bleeding, as two lines under the
straight out of the blood stains on the floor. He felt embarrassed and had to reach for a potty then blood, less than 10 minutes, the basin's half blood to Sheng.
seeing a doctor, quickly bring the child to check. examination, the doctor immediately gave him notice in critical condition. He had is very expensive, the cost it normally takes 30 million! She Shiyou senseless. look at her on the bed, he could not think too much, he had only one thought: to save her daughter! by relatives and friends all over, patchwork
the money, however inadequate and too far away from 30 million, he decided to sell the only adobe houses can change money. But because the house was too old, unable to find buyers.
pair watched his father's depression eyes and wasting away of the face, She always had a brilliant sense of sorrow and grief. once, Yan She took my father's hand, then export the tears have not yet run out: father, one pair of eyes looked at her dismay: it hh > 8-year-old girl
day affairs in order and well-behaved at home, from small to large is not mentioned with any requirements daddy She Yan, then made two requests to the father: she wanted to wear a new dress, and then According to a photo, she father explained: Yan came to town, Yan She spent 30 yuan to buy two sets of new clothes She Yan choose their own a short-sleeved pink shorts, her aunt gave her a set of selected red dot white skirt, she tried on
body to bear off. went to the studio, She wore a pink brilliant new clothes, hands than the V-sign, to smile, but finally could not help shedding tears.
her can no longer go to school, and she stood in front of the village a long time carrying a small bag on the road, eyes are always wet.
if not Like leaves, quietly floating down from the wind.
reporter aunt from the hospital that the situation, wrote a report, a detailed narrative of the story She Yan. immediately, Stories spread in Chengdu, Chengdu has been moved a few years later, the Internet has also been moved
, and countless people as it hurts the poor girl, from Chengdu to the country and the world, real-world interaction with the Internet space All those who love the beginning of life for this small contribution, , surgery costs enough, the small fire of life Yan She was re-ignited our love! announced the fund-raising activities after the end
beam remains steady stream of donations received throughout the world. All the money in place, doctors can do their best efforts, one by one, also do so in the treatment of difficulties one by one break through! everyone smiling calmly waiting for the day
success! that someone wrote in: You can leave the hospital healthy; I pray that you can smoothly back to school; I hope you grow up peace; I imagine that I can accompany you
happy marriage. She Yan, my dear child hh br> 6 21, to give up the treatment of death She go home and wait to be re-received Yan Chengdu, was admitted to Children's Hospital. the money has, in the humble life in a hope and reason to continue.
She Yan received chemotherapy unbearable. glass door, She was lying in bed infusion Yan, head of the bed stood next to a chair, chair, put a plastic basin, her vomiting sideways from time to time. The little girl's firm that surprised everyone. Xu Ming
introduced her attending physician, chemotherapy phase of the gastrointestinal tract reacted strongly, She Yangang start is often a big Banpen spit, but she Check the needle from the sternum piercing, she
When Dr. Xu Ming pointed out: actually afraid to call out: people are looking forward to the rebirth of the moment She Yan. Many people came to the hospital to see She-yan, many Internet users in regards to this poor child, her life gets strange world covered with light.
period time, the wards filled with flowers and fruit everywhere, filled with the intoxicating fragrance.
two months of chemotherapy, Yan She gradually reached the 9 hh bleeding every time good luck. by the domestic authority of the province and even blood diseases of children identified by experts in consultation chemotherapy, the effect is very good, Yan recovery good news.
However, chemotherapy drugs may cause complications after use is very scary. The children of leukemia compared with other many, many poor health She Yan. After this surgery her body even worse .
8 月 20 early morning, she asked Fu Yan: exercise book and handed Fu Yan: of? scratch: ⒆ cherry throat deceive chu carry thrush Nie Procellariiformes frame? Jesus mad blow Trade Krupp ⒉ Huangjuhuangqian Shangcizengmo Zhishansiwei? fat Qiaandihong ⒁ Tabaoyucai Qiaandihong ⒁ Taoruobaonao Longandihong ⒁ Tapijiean exhausted
Rex egg ⒁ Bo squid? 7, and 9 times referred to reporters as people say Aunt you optimistic about my dad. Auntie, my doctors a little bit of money to our school, thank you aunt to the Red Cross president said. I'm dead, the remaining money to those who, like me, sick people, so that they disease better hh could not eat and Yan She supported by the infusion, the first She looked at Yan unbearable abdominal pain, painful way, doctors and nurses were crying, we are willing to help her share the pain, however, tried everything in vain.
8-year-old Yan She was finally away from the disease of violence, to leave peacefully.
everyone can accept this fact: that beautiful poem, pure water, little face, broke down in tears and could not call his aunt, and can no longer laugh out loud, hh
Sichuan Online, Netease online home immersed in scenes of tears, the Internet played wet with tears, can not breathe. , open the small wings, obediently fly hh She Yan strangers girl Dad mothers 2005.8.22)
accordance with the wishes of small She Yan, the remaining 540,000 yuan for medical expenses as a gift of life left to other children suffering from leukemia. It 7 children were Yangxin Lin, Xu Li, Huang Zhiqiang, Liu Linglu, Zhang Yujie, Gao Jian , Wang Jie. these seven poor children, the oldest 19 years old, the youngest only 2 years old, are very difficult for his family, struggling with death of poor children.
9 24, first to accept She Yan Li Xu girl gift of life in Huaxiyitai successful surgery, put up her pale face a smile: assured that the future we still engraved on the tombstone: I came, I behaved hh

Distressed

 I do not know when, I fell in love with the word feel bad, feel bad that the pains of the heart slightly. That is because the love and affection and pamper. Bear with dismay. In addition to family members and the feeling between lovers, the more valuable is just They met or not met, due to a story, a plot Yihuo a look. one of the wells of another person feel bad, that is what a precious and lovely Qingsu. I have no doubt its authenticity. pained nothing to do with love, but be sure and love related. know how distressed the hearts of some others is full of goodness, distressed by others touched the hearts be filled. I am deeply grateful to the people who care about me. pained not random, but also revel in distressed, distressed is what a beautiful people close to the hearts of the word ...
slight pain, but the true theory of distressed and pained a little different. No one knows what kind of feel bad in the taste. All along, I have been distressed troubled to unknowingly better in one day, he suddenly said that he hurt. My heart suddenly Yi Chan. twenty years, he was the first one to tell I would feel bad , he said, pained very exciting, he likes the pain of this moment, like bursts of tingling feeling, like the great .... I secretly pleased, as I do with people feeling distressed.
few days later, inexplicable feel bad ... I feel bad, is still distressed, but distressed, a blank.
I can almost hear the voice of pain, must be heart groaned and gasped .. turns out, the heart with the feeling of correction is this! whether, once the pain is not pain, then pain is real it?
more calm, more aware, is more and more pain.
pain with, can not find the exit from the heart of any afloat, the struggle between the good and evil.
there is a depression in the mind wander, the pain is just able to soul-stirring.
when all when all the good becomes futile , was actually speechless, wordless silence, so that was a disappointment choking heart, why?
What is really good, that all may not be just past the illusion of my senses?
more trying to find their own errors to, think that all just a misunderstanding, but more and more clear thinking knot thread and clear up your own no longer to deceive themselves, so only feel bad, biting cold heart!
sad really can not tell The pain, the pain could be so original entanglement of the heart.
br> The thought that life is so beautiful, though also anxious, although have no choice, but the sweet and warm, be happy, happy too, can now actually be so cruel to deny it all. so distressed, distressed, or distressed ......

March 8 talk about breast cancer prevention expert online new concept (a)

 Because the interview time constraints, the problem can not be experts on each users detailed answer, please read the interview with Record of users, many users of the problem has been answered, in addition to individual cases or description too long is not very clear, most of the problems have been answered.
(Record first interview)
(Interview Record second paragraph)
(Interview Record third paragraph)
Moderator: Good afternoon, friends, welcome between Sohu Health Interview , 3.8 Women's Day the majority of the women we first sisters to say hi and wish you a happy holiday!
on this special day, we invited two very famous in the prevention and treatment of breast cancer experts, but also we old friend, the Beijing Union Medical College Hospital Professor Sun Qiang and PLA 307 Hospital, Professor Jiang Zefei, give us new ideas about prevention and treatment of breast cancer, we are very pleased to go to the well-known persons of breast cancer public service announcement, but also breast cancer patients Miss Ye Danyang, to communicate with the vast experience of breast cancer patients. First of all, please say hello to three with friends!
Qiang Sun: netizens good, happy holidays! very happy and we can work together to do some of their prevention and treatment of breast cancer efforts.
Ye Danyang: Hello everybody, I am a Beijing television Ye Danyang, very happy and everyone in the thirty-eight is more important to explore the topic of women.
Jiang Zefei: Hello, everybody, meet again, Every March 8th, have to pay attention to women concerned about breast cancer prevention knowledge.
Moderator: Breast cancer is harmful to women's health, an important type of cancer worldwide each year over a million women about breast cancer . and incidence rates are constantly rising, many cities in China has been ranked in cancer prevalence in female cancer accounted for the top. in just the past 2006 years, the incidence of breast cancer is what? What new features? There Professor Jiang Zefei, please introduce us first.
Jiang Zefei: Overall speaking, we increased the number of incidence, but the other thing is that the whole community to raise awareness of breast cancer, so people will be reflected in the more. This implies another meaning, not a true increase in incidence, but some patients had no consciousness, and now more conscious of the future, more attention to breast cancer patients in the prevention and treatment, so as a part of early detection cases. As we work together, including health care, including patients, including the efforts of the media, now knowledge of the disease control a lot more popular than in the past. should be said that all these years, breast cancer prevention and control of publicity compared to other diseases, with great progress.
Moderator: For all diseases, prevention is always the most important, of course, breast cancer is no exception, female friends should always pay attention to their breasts, so early prevention of breast cancer, early detection, so that can improve the detection and cure rates. that the two experts in the prevention of breast cancer What are the new ideas brought to us users?
Qiang Sun: not to mention new ideas, in the prevention of breast cancer The most important thing is early detection of problems. early detection of raised many years, not too mention, because early detection and prognosis of late discovery, the effort from the medical workers and patients put on the economy very different . if early detection of breast cancer, will greatly improve the survival rate of breast cancer patients.
in the prevention, many years ago, foreign drug tamoxifen to prevent, so far, which is also being explored, not to say completely into a precautionary approach must be carried out. Recently a new drug is also used for the prevention of aromatase inhibitor, the outcome, which is still under discussion.
Moderator: So Professor Jiang Zefei What's new in this concept ?
Jiang Zefei: Last year we had worked a ten thousand cases of the questionnaire, many women worry about breast cancer, more worried about the pain after treatment and economic loss, but we are more worried about is that many people do not know how to find the do not know how to prevent. Breast cancer is preventable and curable, and there are a few very clear view once again: early detection, early cure. early detection of patients can retain their perfect breasts, but also and does not affect the results. should be said that we still cherish their bodies to stress, can be retained, as far as possible retained. early detection, we would be better therapeutic effect.
Moderator: So we continue to reaffirm constantly telling friends Prevention is very important. Now countries vigorously promote community health, the two experts think of this policy on the prevention of breast cancer, what kind of drive? our team of experts in these areas, what action?
Qiang Sun: Community health care introduction and further spread of breast cancer prevention is certainly a great advantage. First of all aspects of treatment not now line up to go to large hospitals, a long time to fancy disease in the community. But the level of community physicians to be improved, our attention to the popularity of the community will be made gradually raise the professional standards of doctors, so that early detection of breast cancer has a major breakthrough.
Moderator: Professor Sun in this respect seems to have an issue.
Qiang Sun: There is a National Eleventh Five-support program called comparison, to find a more suitable method for breast cancer screening in China to further improve the cure rate of breast cancer, this method is brewing, are being implemented. in the future to participate in the training of community doctors to enable them to further improve the prevention and treatment of breast cancer awareness and prevention level.
Moderator: Professor Jiang health care in the community have the latest views?
Jiang Zefei: the development of community health as a country trying to solve an important measure for the so-called medical treatment is difficult, in fact, there are two levels of comparison in primary health care : The third level hospitals, specialty hospitals face a relatively difficult cases the main research, the new program research, and teaching, guidance, and should do a little survey work, more hope through community health care, better let a female friend to have regular contact, check the opportunity to go to specialist doctors to the community on a regular basis, as Professor Sun said, can have some training, some work does not need to go to large hospitals, not all of my friends went to Union Hospital, are Professor Sun to hang out-patient.
Ye Danyang: breast screening abroad more widely, because most of them have medical insurance, there are very few did not, they will enter the community to do the work, to enable them to check for breast cancer .
Sun Qiang: China should strengthen future work in this respect, at least in high-risk groups should be free to do the census, but is still able to meet this requirement. We are now doing the work, the National Eleventh Five-Year Project to millions of funding, this work can not be said to start, far short of universal screening, this study hopes to draw more standardized screening method, called the whole society in the future, I hope this is a transition.
Moderator: Will Miss Ye Danyang, as a public service announcement of the President of cancer, what are your experiences on the prevention of breast cancer to share with friends?
Ye Danyang: We are very much like to tell you that doctors and patients are very much like to tell you, we must prevent To prevent, to check the body. To tell the truth, health, present a lot of ordinary people, some healthy people who may not want, why go to the hospital all right to do this check. but this is very critical work.
Although these years, every year there are activities to do with the Jiangzhu Ren and Sun Zhuren with these things, do publicity, but I was sick four years ago, fast five years, five years ago is not such a great environment, five years , now at least from the media, the whole society are beginning to pay attention to this matter, told the women to remind women, you have to cherish their breasts, and now there is this atmosphere was. But in the end they did not visit, we do not know? to what I occasion, will tell us that we can get breast love any woman no one said I would not have, and you are not sure, I will never have.
how to do? have to talk about prevention.
Professor Sun also just heard about some preventive tamoxifen can eat, it may be at high risk, the doctor recommended that she eat some of these drugs. how do we convince them to do prevention, so that they went into the hospital on a regular basis to do some survey, or their own home do self-test it, we told her that a woman can not decide whether you cancer, but you can decide when you cancer of the time, he will find it the first time, the first time to hospital for treatment.
if Early detection and treatment, 90% of breast cancer can be cured, but the cost will be relatively small flowers, I spent less than thirty thousand dollars, early breast cancer to cure, but also preservation of the breast, and unnecessary so late, no way to save the breast.
then Dr. Gao Mingde, terminally ill, and also ways to save, if made active preparations for this, when you find the time, you can preserve the breast, and spend thirty thousand dollars is possible. If you have an advanced stage, and probably millions of money can not save your breasts, but the thirty millions of dollars to keep up with the money compared to them, or earlier is better, and it is important for preservation of the breast .
Moderator: the suffering of patients will be relatively less affected. Please Professor Jiang reiterated here with friends about what is breast cancer risk factors, how to prevent?
Jiang Zefei: For lesbians, it has a high incidence of age and relatives in the history of breast cancer, it is essential that there is a risk factor relative. on the way, I feel the need to emphasize that, like Western countries, there is a proposal in the United States, women over the age of 40 should go to the hospital make such a formal examination, the doctor decide his future based on the actual need to do check how long the investigation.
literature materials abroad, will report, for example, in Europe and the United States, breast cancer screening is not lower early mortality, This is indeed a problem, it is because they have sound health insurance system, have a good family doctor, a timely screening and treatment, annual inspection, so early detection is relatively easy.
such a concept, To correctly understand the million users. our country and abroad have very different levels of health care, the most important at this stage is to make the necessary medical examination of women friends to enhance awareness of self and.
our country that many women do not breast disease know the circumstances, and sometimes doctors can check by hand the problem can be found in her no problem, and if he do screening instrument checks, and through these visits, the doctor and there is an exchange between women, at least you should tell her how self-examination, when a doctor should check in the present and future of China within a period of time, this may be very important. So do not casual reference to Western countries that earlier investigation, screening does not reduce mortality, the concept we must be through the media to call, which we have done enough.
Ye Danyang: prevention is very important to prevent the West more active than we do, but some measures are not necessary, I can not say . I have seen a Discovery Channel film of breast cancer, the chip yard, 27-year-old girl and did not find her early breast cancer, but said the department in her ancestors, her grandparents or her grandma to a generation that has a genetic gene, to her generation, there should be 90% or 80% chance of developing breast cancer, she would be a preventive, the total removal of the breasts and is a mother with her removal. You can see get out, they are also very sensible.
Jiang Zefei: this error, I must correct, here is a preventive removal of the gland, not mastectomy, and is prepared to risk of breast cancer may be glands removed in advance, and some genetic testing can help doctors to do this work.
Moderator: Some time ago the media reported that millions of women breast cancer screening project because of excessive radiation screening equipment was stopped, there is no need for this survey , or be not such a census?
Sun Qiang: First, the census project on millions of women stopped because of excessive radiation concept, is not yet sure. can not say not to do radiation, there is still controversial. Radiation The problem is millions of women radiologists and experts in survey works of the process, some people think that this radiation is acceptable to the Chinese people, but we are here to talk about this issue. census, no matter what way the census, this is certainly necessary. Professor Jiang and Yip have mentioned, is very important to early prevention of breast cancer.
Host: high-risk groups and ordinary people should be active during the census.
Qiang Sun: that the census method is palpation or X-ray or other equipment with extra fine B examination, this is not a clear national guidelines, the Eleventh Five-mentioned issues, we also wishes to obtain a standardized screening method for comparison, there is no . census itself is still necessary, as the method used in this study were still.
radiation problem is the radiologist, and these experts to discuss them. Some experts believe that the so-called breast-ray technology and general X-ray technology is not the same, but acceptable, not to discuss here, I'm just exploring this survey is necessary. just said that what women do not need to participate in the census. young women, whether or not, for the census to the hospital for clinical examination or not to do X ray screening recommended.
Ye Danyang: like me, and I often do the census, to that place, they say we do a first visit, up to a B plus super, super B is no problem that can not have that.
Qiang Sun: Because X-young women, the first female glands denser, according to this film is not very clear resolution, combined with radiation. on not recommended for young women up to do X-ray examination, but the alert, regular self-examination, regular clinical examination is still necessary.
Moderator: There are reports that a recent look at the concept of chemoprevention, in this regard , Professor Jiang for our patients and friends have any suggestions?
Jiang Zefei: chemoprevention problem itself is very strict, long-term risk taking, and when opened from the use of, to whom with, it must be comprehensive, security of data to support, but now the data has yet to be collected. There is also a big problem is that even if the foreign tamoxifen to prevent breast cancer, but can reduce the number still to be verified. If a women from the age of 40 is used to open with 45 years of age, does not mean to have a peak, leaving the concept of chemical prevention of medical institutions, reserved for professionals to discuss, as the public is still concerned about when to go to the doctor, when to go check what the experts before we discuss people really need to do chemoprevention.
Moderator: Now is holding two sessions, medical treatment is difficult and expensive to become the topic of common concern, the three gentlemen, what this suggested patients should choose what kind of medical treatment available to them Some more effective?
Jiang Zefei: Indeed, to a large extent, we are calling a doctor is difficult and expensive, in fact, medical practice is not easy, as a doctor, many patients waited a long time to see the doctor, we doctors are hungry stomach to see the doctor. like the northeast, under the snow, the train finally came through and we have to find you a doctor.
called your doctor, patient treatment may be a lot of spending every day, especially in patients with relatively late, in order to alleviate the symptoms, extend the life of thousands or even tens of thousands of daily input, if used in the early costs of such prevention, the cost may be tens of thousands of dollars can win three, five or even ten years, disease-free status, this is a smart investment reasonable investment.
other projects such as the participation of Professor Sun also proves that the national policy for the benefit of the public, with very little amount of money, so that these experts come to the community, there are some health education activities, as a preventive for , there is work to do, it is actually a lot of people can solve problems better. because of the better community health, less sick people, the source of the so-called medical treatment is difficult to fundamentally solve the problem.
Ye Danyang: Or is very important to prevent.
Moderator: Yip have this experience to communicate with friends who, like medical treatment is difficult?
Ye Danyang: From I gave birth to the now generally at public expense, and because someone at home In the hospital, so I see a doctor not too hard, I really do not have such an experience, we have the so-called medical treatment is difficult is the most fundamental reason so many people, this is the most fundamental reason. As for those with the doctor or hospital organization, I do not think a direct relationship, too many people crowded into the hospital, then certainly it is very difficult. I want the country to build more hospitals, more doctors waiting for him there, we went to After several doctors look at a patient, it is good.
Moderator: Professor Sun experience a deeper, because we all know, Union Hospital registered difficult.
Ye Danyang: 307 is the same. < br> Sun Qiang: medical treatment is difficult and expensive problem, not only were very concerned about, the Government is very, very seriously, as we attach great importance to medical staff, and hope to resolve this issue soon. Now, the two areas, a career in medicine side, the specialist in breast diseases doctor does not much need to continue to grow and develop, from the patient in terms of, for example, some common physiological changes, breast pain, which is physiological disease, many people have the experience, the problem must be found as soon as possible to the hospital to check, confirm the diagnosis. but not the disease, say the experts have to go looking for the best, and sometimes difficult to see a doctor, the patient may feel psychological problems.
Ye Danyang: We think we see it, and fear we all see the crash, doctors exhausted. So I think publicity is very important, this knowledge should be the media tell it, we derive knowledge of the disease not so serious, proliferation is normal, 80% of women will have, I do check regularly, I am concerned about it it. So I think this issue should be resolved by you.
Qiang Sun: For your doctor problems, such as breast cancer, this aspect of the whole society may have many expensive drugs to particular drug prices could be down, this is indeed a problem, and some drug hundreds of thousands of ordinary people is really difficult to maintain. This is indeed the whole community. in the treatment of principles, based on the patient's condition, choose the right health care program jointly comparison, the most expensive program is not an option.
Ye Danyang: Now to the hospital, I understand, the doctor gave you the most basic therapy, starting from the cheapest medicine, the most expensive medicine can not be used, and then further to walk, do not give you one up the most expensive drugs, under normal circumstances are like this. breast cancer treatment, general The hospital will give you turn up a sliding scale. must be maintained to the last illness, with more expensive drugs, some people money to buy life, can also be maintained. This is another thing.
Host: Taiwan users are not under some experience, you can now communicate with our online friends?
users: we feel that doctors have to find a doctor, do not look for doctors is not enough.
Yedan Yang: I think we have this concept, we must find doctors, or unreliable.
User: Finally, let your satisfaction.
Jiang Zefei: As patients with this idea, we have a good understanding. But to another point, if the more developed the community health care, basic health care transmission of knowledge is better, we can find the media, to find community, not often go to, even while the March 8 every year to once again speak to each community, continue to spread this knowledge, basic knowledge of lectures by a number of doctors and nurses to talk on it.
another point, patients are spread scientific knowledge and ideas, is also very important. of course, a major problem for the decision, such as related to whether a mastectomy is do first chemotherapy, these fine planning time, more than suggest that you consult an expert, the other to search for some information from the network, the network there are many materials can be studied, and now national treatment guidelines, expert consensus, listen to views, the decision to do so. This arrangement Some will be more reasonable.
Ye Danyang: Now more and more sensible patients. They get more and more information.
Moderator: Next, for the patients, was most concerned about drugs and treatment methods, first of all Professor Jiang would like to ask, in breast cancer treatment, new drugs and which has recently emerged?
Jiang Zefei: whether it is chemical drugs, endocrine drugs, as well as bio-targeted drugs, there are many new drugs into the clinic, More and more aspects of drug use better, is to solve the problems of patients.
Moderator: In the treatment methods, Professor Sun have a new treatment? Now it seems to do a lot of patients are very popular breast plasty The patient should be how to do it?
Qiang Sun: mammaplasty is indeed more and more, this is understandable, it is the pursuit of quality of life can understand. There are two problems, one is not breast cancer, from the beauty point of view, to do shaping, this is actually a lot of Americans, about 29 million people each year do mammaplasty. But in our country, it is now largely a consensus, injection drug use what is not appropriate, exhausted, may increase the likelihood of cancer, the other on the shape is not very good. breast excellent, and can not achieve the original effect, but a lot of distress to the patient increase.
leave the body , abroad with a lot of our country, there are many. If the majority of patients with these needs of women, the pursuit of beauty is understandable, but still want everyone to formal, large hospitals to do, not to the small hospital to do, done after the , prone to common problems, we often implant rupture, edema formation of large, these issues will appear. let things will not cause cancer, the absence of a positive statement, a description of certain breast shape after just said, an impact on breast examination, early detection of breast cancer is the impact area, regardless of their photos from the child, or to see the film's point of view much smaller, no matter from which side, the positive impact on the check.
other a concept, has breast cancer and need to do one at the time of forming or recycling, from the patient pursuit of beauty needs, the needs of the United States if the patients must meet the needs of patients, she hoped so, you have to meet her. that this area is not dangerous, but also to decide the case based on the patient, some can be done to retain the breast, there is no need to cut all these reservations, the breast can be, not retained, there is no way to be cut off, the patient and asked to stay, you must meet her, were it possible to choose to do here, so can be done, but some patients relapse chance to finish after taking into account the time of recurrence of breast cancer treatment, recurrence of the opportunity, are detailed communication to do so serious thinking to do or not do.
Moderator: The following users for the new drug treatment or new treatment methods have no problem with the platform to consult the experts?
users : where I Jiangzhu Ren after treatment, the ideal patient needs oral tamoxifen, but I would like to ask five years of tamoxifen oral administration of such a long time, in addition to cure, prevent the effective area of breast cancer, the other body will not adverse side effects? I accidentally hear patients talk about that in vivo tamoxifen inhibited the growth of estrogen, increased testosterone, breast-conserving surgery is required to do to improve the quality of life, but expected, if the body of substantial decline in estrogen, androgen surge that would result in five years taking masculine characteristics, as women, more masculine characteristics, then the state will have a certain mental or life impact.
Jiang Zefei: five years of tamoxifen treatment for us to arrange The first is the confidence of the five-year long-term treatment, but also on long-term safety of the drug test to consider. drugs have side effects, adverse reactions you just worry about it, foreign literature has not reported. tamoxifen, the receptor's antagonist, is against the body's hormone and hormone receptor binding, it should just say it cause you do not worry about that. The reason is so young with tamoxifen reason is itself a relatively low-risk patients early, since the reservation breast, we want to keep good, of course, hope to have a better quality of life, should be said that from the quality of life to consider such a treatment should be more appropriate, but also for long-term use. just mentioned health problems, should not have a big problem, Moreover, there is regular inspection.
friends: I have a friend who had this disease, who have taken tamoxifen, it is what side effects, side effects later, how should we respond to or what medication options do?
Ye Danyang : Just Jiang Zhuren answer is this question, I also have a little doubt. I have been taking tamoxifen, because I'm negative, I have a very serious proliferation, proliferation of the effect of tamoxifen with ease, using a year later and found endometrial thickness, and then stopped, and stopped for some time found a sports uterine bleeding, curettage was carried out just fine. I would also like to have some significant side effects vary.
Jiang Zefei: Tamoxifen is an anticancer drug, must be prescription drugs, under the guidance of the doctors need to take formal. As for its preventive effect, the present data only show the person to prevent receptor-positive, tamoxifen treatment of breast hyperplasia, do not agree with Professor Sun . If the breast cancer with tamoxifen, can prevent the transfer of the reaction after menopause, even if no response, from the point of view can also be replaced by a better efficacy of aromatase inhibitors. If it is young women before menopause, because menstruation after chemotherapy, in this context is emphasized specialty drugs, looking for specialist consultation, there is more scientific evidence of what medicine should be used, what drug should not.
Ye Danyang: or patients to hold their own, do you eat What is reflected in this medicine, close observation, communication with the doctor.
Moderator: Originally, a woman breast is a symbol of the United States in particular, once found himself had breast cancer later, many women will be particularly depressed, would suffer a great mind blow, we will be reserved as early detection of breast cancer breast, but as a former breast cancer patients that there is no proposal to the users, not the disease was discovered, immediately depressed people, how your psychological adjustment?
Ye Danyang : was not the same as other diseases like breast cancer, I can stomach to rule the stomach, and breast milk if you can not guarantee to lose the breast. no matter who, through this experience should be, not everyone can accept, In particular, the deterioration of the body, loss of the breast, we are no longer a complete woman, she is very sensitive, very concerned about this.
group therapy is very important, in isolation, when you are in a very healthy all around, only you, you will feel very sad. If there is a group of people, we are together, they keep telling me, no breasts, but they live very good, very happy. I like a term, we follow a number of other breast cancer organizations to exchange, breast cancer will claim to be soul mate, what means? breast less, or one less piece, called himself a soul mate. the one hand, self-deprecating, because I lack, the other she is also very humorous, I do not care less , in addition, she has great respect for their meaning, I am soul mate, I do not think I'm worse than others do. from the heart to give yourself the confidence, but this is to gradually build up confidence, not to say that I had , I suddenly become a person, a process is needed. the one hand, the psychological needs of their commissioning, the help of friends around the patient, family help, colleagues, friends, family and friends to encourage, which is very important, which is integrated thing, is not completely rely on one person to solve the problem, we own strength is the most important.
when you suffer from breast cancer, it should find a new starting point as quickly as possible, no matter how you feel, it is missing, it is an indisputable fact, you can not. When you know, even if I lack, I still can live a happier life, though your body is incomplete, but the psychology is complete, may your days than the original better.
my own experience in this respect, and I lost around a lot of these women the breast, through this channel threshold will, come later, their lives are really happier than ever, we should not worry too much about this issue and they have to value yourself, love yourself, people around you will feel normal, more normal than the people around them.
Moderator: Once the bear, but to their own, did your counselor do to help in this regard? < br> Ye Danyang: there will be, no matter how good consultant, did not lose that part, it is not convincing. There are a lot of breast cancer organization, and its establishment will attract a lot of breast cancer, they are very vested in here sense to talk, why are you so good, if a healthy person there is nothing that you lose this, people definitely want, of course, you have, so you do not care, no person is me, when he was the same with people, he did not, he is happy, he found a model.
I understand there is a breast cancer organization in Taiwan to open to open Association. All workers are breast cancer patients, they found such an organization, they become employees of this organization in Taiwan, as long as each of breast cancer when she had breast cancer, these organizations go to that place, tell her, do not worry, loss of breast, still life is very happy, go, to their own dress up special spirit.
Jiang Zhuren to see these women, very bright, appears, dressed up special spirit, carefully make-up, bring things that they should take, staff training, with something, say something, do something, very scientific set of things. patients have been lying in that place that I die, I lost my breast, and how I live, I do not eat, head no hair, the face is not washed, so dead. group of people go in, when the first thing done is close the door, unlock the clothes, so that patients can see a woman standing opposite her group is the same with her, they lose their breasts, but the wear on the clothes, not people see they are breast cancer patients, very beautiful, very confident. and so these women had gone, the patients will say that I'm going to jump up to eat. This step is resolved, she knew, although she had breast cancer, she will lose, but she is still beautiful life can be like before. patient self-psychological rehabilitation of patients is very important.
doctors most tired of? patients every day, wrapped around a group of doctors, I thought the two officers all had the same experience, that is, as relatives of patients like him, wait for them to haunt him. I not seen the Sun Zhuren day, mental anxiety, I saw his face, I feel today, how, Sun Zhuren said no problem, you are well, I'll ease out. many patients like that. but when day haunt you when the doctor, the doctor very tired, but every time a doctor can not give you the most considerate care, because doctors, after all, Doctor, doctor his duties, no obligation every day to comfort and love you, let your heart always comfortable, this is not his responsibility. But the very need for such patients to meet, who will accomplish such a thing, is to help the rehabilitation of patients? by the suffering of patients in which the most convincing, and will relieve pressure on doctors.
Jiang Zefei: This is one of the responsibilities of doctors, but unfortunately, I ...

Wang is the U.S. economic bubble burst in the beginning of the war Iran

 March 30 afternoon, Professor Wang Jian, Secretary General of China's macro economy and the telecommunications network a guest to the U.S. rate hike impact on the global economy express their opinions, Record interview follows.
Moderator: Does the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continue to lead the United States Housing real estate bubble, the stock market bubble burst, and then on the international futures, stocks, currency markets have a major impact? economic circles to this dispute. are invited Professor Wang Jian, Secretary General of China's macroeconomic and surfers.
Moderator: March the 28th Federal Reserve announced its 15th interest rate increase, the move on the global economy and capital market, futures market will have some impact, how to look at the longest 25 years the Fed tightening cycle on the U.S. economy and the global economy, and for the related capital market, futures market, the impact of the stock market, and today are pleased to go to Secretary General of China's macro economy, national experts, Professor Wang Jian and surfers. introduce myself first, please.
Wang: We are the national development and Reform Commission, the following macroeconomic Society, we are an institution directly under the NDRC. The Institute is mainly responsible for the macro some academic activities, there are many members, including the Planning Commission, various departments, and plans for integrated management of all parts Secretary, institutions, and provincial Development and Reform Commission, in addition to some scholars, individual members, about more than two hundred members. We are all group members, only about 20 members around several scholars, the other is institutional members. < br> Moderator: Is it also to the national macroeconomic policies do provide some policy recommendations?
Wang: We have also done a lot of this work, but basically we are the unsung heroes. For example, in ; when the Society had given the State Department of macro economic growth for the center to arrange absorbed in our view, the central leading comrades later added a regime change. One is the economic equivalent way to shift from extensive to intensive, then system should be further from the traditional economic model to the market, then we know this is the a change the U.S. economy and the global impact of how to look?
Wang: I think the Fed's rate hike is actually a danger of the U.S. economy further increased. U.S. economy is the biggest problem is what we often said that the twin deficits , the trade deficit widening, the fiscal deficit continued to expand, these problems are actually linked. budget deficit, said the expansion is formed by the negative financial savings, and now look at not only from the U.S. government is negative savings, the residents but also the negative savings, Only companies and some savings. But the country's three main government, business, residents, two of the main savings are negative, so the economy is continuing deficiencies. have a two-gap theory of trade gap caused by inadequate savings, resulting in a trade deficit. U.S. twin deficits are growing, it must have to have a constantly replenished source of recurrent deficit, to ensure that the capital surplus.
how the surplus in the formation of it? you go to buy U.S. assets, other countries are willing to monetary forms of wealth into dollar form of wealth, the dollar would firm form of U.S. assets is greater than the rate of increase of other forms of state assets. because the form of U.S. assets more preservation of the .90 s to enter the United States United States the concept of a new economy, stocks are particularly good, flourishing, attracting a large flow of funds the United States, this surplus capital items have continued to expand, so afraid of the widening deficit. But the stock market bubble in 2000, the first Nasdaq die, from over five thousand point fell more than two thousand points, it is now the standard. followed by the 9.11 board also die, in fact, has been shown before that a delay, 9.11 after the promotion of its more substantial decline.
after the U.S. government in this A new approach to using the real estate bubble to keep the trend of rising U.S. asset prices, with so many exciting means. For example, after the 9.11 U.S. dollar interest rates continue to lower interest rates reduce the burden of housing mortgage loans to light, residents willing to buy the assets. Another is to reduce the mortgage down payment, 20% from the general said, can be reduced to 5%, or even a lot of zero down payment, even within the first five years of interest not principal, and the loan period stretched from 25 years to 30 years, can the loan limit from the past 500 million U.S. dollars, now raise 12 million U.S. dollars on the line. so many incentives lead to 9.11 after the U.S. real estate prices continued to rise. stock losses in asset prices, but real estate here they come up. so residents are wealth or value-added, so dare to spend a lot. Last year, the U.S. savings rate is negative 0.7, earn less than the money spent. because he felt that the value of my property so that the entire assets and incomes are rising, so that brought out by the wealth effect of the increase in consumer spending, the increase in consumer spending has become the United States to expand demand and stimulate economic growth in the most important driving force. now accounts for almost 80% of consumer demand, by with such a mechanism.
mortgage loans in addition to 9.11 after the United States re-engage in a lot of mortgages. and then the mortgage is what this means? for instance, is $ 300,000 to buy a house, now the real estate rose 12% per year, 13%, after a few years into a $ 500,000, I will get the bank to do a re-mortgage, rising out of the 20 million U.S. dollars, the rule of Bank of America is pledged to go out to do half and give you 10 million in loans. that the U.S. mortgage refinancing, real estate appreciation of the withdrawal to become U.S. residents device, which can come up with money from the housing growth in consumption, which is supported by the U.S. consumer in recent years an important mechanism for expansion. Now the value of the housing bubble is not a bit, and now we are discussing real estate is high risk, the stock market bubble finally burst, finally broke through the years, real estate, is also coming to an end almost five years.
people from 2004 artificially high real estate began to talk too much, too much foam was blowing, so to break the U.S. economy, hurt the financial system is very powerful. how to do it? the courage to re-use to stimulate the real estate way to attract international capital flows, to maintain their own domestic economic prosperity, began to be suppressed. but also take into account if there is no capital inflow, the United States is not working day, because the recurrent deficit is increasing, from 2004 6 dollars for the first time on the 28th interest rate increase to 15 times now, so start plus, start plus one percentage point from 4.75 percentage points to play now. is the way to raise interest rates to attract international capital flows.
actually 04 When the end of the Fed raising interest rates five times, one is 0.25 percentage points, plus five, plus a 2.25 .2.25 this level to this level and then pull the interest rate gap between the euro. We see the second half as the dollar continue to increase in 2004 During recess time, and did not show a strong U.S. dollar, the euro because it did not form between the spread, not the spread higher than the euro. From 2005 to see the dollar go into a strong, along with the U.S. dollar, in the early 2005, when U.S. interest rates have been higher than the euro, and after that constantly raising interest rates. In 2005 only until December 1 for the first rate hike in February this year, a second rate hike. < br> as the U.S. interest rates soon, interest rates and high frequency than the euro opened the increasing spread. to hold dollar assets and euro assets held, only from holding dollars to get on the right interest rate. For the currency transactions were immediately able to see where the interests of space, and can borrow to buy the euro dollar, you can borrow yen to buy dollars, in the middle of this spread to me to be able to benefit. Although I know the dollar is very dangerous . but to do so a short term interest rate arbitrage currency trading is for me nothing much short-term risk. so see the dollar from 2005 show a strong market, the U.S. dollar against the yen, the euro is on the rise. The dollar exchange rate, a large number of international transfer of capital from other currencies into U.S. dollars form the result of the currency form, this role is behind the dollar continues to increase its interest rates, have such a result.
first with the U.S. stock market , bonds, after a space city, the property market to care dollars, with interest rates to prop up dollar has now become, what is different? interest rates and the use of stock and property markets to prop up the biggest difference that it is a double-edged sword, when you raise interest rates to attract substantial foreign capital arbitrage process, although a lot of pull to foreign investment, risk is inherent in your real estate, the stock market has hit. rate is certainly high on the stock market hit the real estate market is certainly is also a big hit. we see a strange situation, in 2005 this year, we have not seen the U.S. housing market decline, the U.S. housing rose 13% last year, the Dow Jones index are high, What is the logic here? In a phenomenon we saw last year, and it was Greenspan called the U.S. Treasury interest rates than those of the biennial 30-year Treasury bond interest rates higher, until now this phenomenon has not been fully completed. recent period we also saw 30-year Treasury bond interest rate levels will sometimes fall into the five-year period Under the biennium. how to interpret this phenomenon it?
Greenspan said, is phenomenon, a large number of mainly U.S. Treasury bonds held by Asian central banks. the prospects for the dollar by Asian central banks, including China, the dollar's prospects are very worrying. To avoid such losses is to a large number of short-term financial assets fall into Long-term assets, including short-term treasury bonds for the Decade following 30-year government bonds have become the national debt, a large number of buying bonds. equivalent to the U.S. Treasury market structure to change. we'll buy a long-term bonds to buy long-term U.S. Treasury prices higher the long-term high-yield bond prices came down, this is the reverse trend. during the year are so adjusted, the adjustment process is to keep the dollar from the second half of 2004 to raise interest rates, has been added to the end of the beginning of this year have not stopped, long-term U.S. interest rates have been falling instead of rising in the process, and it is Asian central banks and other central banks during the restructuring of assets are related.
last year, but the adjustment to 9 January 11th when interest rates change. in 2005 to see, from January to September or in early long-term U.S. interest rates lower in the process, but began to rise after September. It was a signal that U.S. dollar assets in Asia adjustment is basically over. Last year, there is a message that Japan is also to adjust its asset structure, more euro assets held in the month of December last year, the Japanese shot is probably the United States Treasury bonds with a net sell more than 240 billion U.S. dollars, only China is still a lot to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. Japan has started selling Treasury bonds in the. In addition to short-term into long-term, but also do not want to be, and just to sell.
from last September We see long-term interest rates after the U.S. began to move, so that immediately affect the real estate market, there are two performance. The first long-term performance of 30-year mortgage bond prices fell, in October and September fell by 2.5 compared to about percentage points. Another is the United States S & P 500 index in the real estate sector index fell by 16% in October after the United States continue to see new home sales down housing, new home construction permit applications are down, housing prices in some places in Los Angeles, West Coast, Southwest region, prices rose past the southern region where the most powerful in the fall down now. We see the U.S. Commerce Department in February new home sales dropped by 17 percentage points. the original Economics House is not expected to fall so much. the interest rate is a double-edged sword, and you do not improve within a period of time against the real estate market is a special reason, because the U.S. national debt is very special, many foreign central bank buying. When these foreign central banks adjust the structure of his assets after the end of September last year after we see a change.
the United States is now caught in a crevice, or standing on a wire, if not increase interest rates to international capital will not come in, if interest rates, they would pierce the domestic asset bubbles. We took the dollar-denominated assets are boring, or run, it can only compare the benefits of raising interest rates more than the price of domestic assets, or the impact of major combat should be weighed against. the international capital market is an interactive, connected to each other, but also interactive. U.S. interest rates are and the euro, the yen is relatively out of the level. If the U.S. dollar interest rates, for instance Now is the neutral rate U.S. dollar interest rate increase can not, and add another 5%, do not raise rates. but you do not increase, the euro, the yen to add it? euro, the yen if the rate hike, the dollar is not international capital and interest rates ran. spread is a relative level. In the last year I wrote an article defending U.S. dollar hegemony and the end of the war. The article stresses that can save dollars in the euro, the euro can be destroyed the Asian dollar.
Why can save dollars in the euro? If tens of trillions of capital to run it, where to run it? the total size of Japanese capital that is $ 6,000,000,000,000, Europe and Japan are the size of capital markets the same. stay in the United States to international capital to run the euro can only be run. euro in order to save the dollar is simply printing money. This is actually between changes in supply and demand and the dollar, is holding U.S. dollars, it do not fall. But the Europeans will do this thing? Europeans consider their own thing. Why did the European Central Bank raising interest rates last year, raising interest rates again this year then? was taken in their own affairs. Now the problem in oil prices, domestic demand recovery, the recovery of economic growth, raise my prices in the euro set the upper limit of 2%, but is now over, so to raise interest rates. euros plus 0.25 percentage points, should follow the Canadian dollar, so the dollar's increase interest can be said to not stop.
I expect the euro this year, may raise interest rates four times, the beginning of time, in March there will be time later, in June, at the end of rate hikes are possible. because recently we see to Europe last year, the growth rate of broad money is about 7.8, the European Central Bank set the growth rate of broad money I probably only 4.5 to 7.8 but last year, and he believes there is a big potential inflationary pressures. European Central Bank own CD one's responsibility to ensure currency stability, in fact, staring at the rate of inflation, the inflation rate is not high. But the money made over the future there will be an inflation rate, not to say there is a rise in oil prices after inflation rate was there. The European Central Bank can not save the U.S. dollar continues to consider the issuance of currency, to increase the credibility of the euro broke down. So the euro to raise interest rates, so that U.S. can not stop.
other out of the Japanese economy is also now recovery in Japan last December, when, according to an annual rate of industrial growth would have been equivalent to 12%, 13%, and with China has had more than one, and we are now industry is now 16%. From this point of view of Japan as an indicator the recovery of economic growth is strong, and it has lasted so many years of ultra-loose monetary policy. In this month the Bank of Japan announced the end of my ultra-liberal. two means, one is meant to keep the banking system 30-35000000000000 yen position is not to be so much to reduce about 6 trillion yen, almost one sixth of the. another one I have to raise interest rates. It has recently been in discussion is from 0.01% to 0.1%, equivalent to increased ten times, but still very low, but it also is a signal. Recently the Bank of Japan announced that, after exposure to ultra-loose monetary policy, commercial banks in Japan have been impatient and took them to continue to raise interest rates on deposits, lending rates also improved, probably increased 0.5 percentage points. Japanese yen interest rates are bullish trend, the euro interest rate is also bullish trend, to see how dollars? U.S. interest rates to stop you?
the Fed will want to maintain a strong dollar to fight a war in Iran
Moderator: It is now generally agreed that the Fed went to 5.5 to coming to an end, can no longer continue to go out.
Wang: It is the euro, yen carry on pushing, I can not add people to raise interest rates, I do not add the words of international capital will soon turn around, we had to fear on the dollar, but the sake of short-term arbitrage can make money, not want to hold dollars long term. If the spreads narrow here, and I risk cost of holding dollar increased, I do not want to increase the risk of holding dollar cost, only turned out. So the yen, the euro interest rate as long as a dollar to have to raise interest rates, is not it like it or not the problem. is that the United States do not yet know it capital market interest rates increase on how strong tolerance. to 5 broken not broken? 5.25 broken not broken? 5.5 broken not broken do not know. but I guess that after the U.S. dollar is barely 5, and by that time will pierce your own property bubble there. Once the housing bubble burst, a lot of international capital will past yuan, the euro on the run, the fact that it is unstoppable. So you say that U.S. interest rates 15 times, can not stop, I that it can not stop. because of the euro, the yen interest rate so it should not stop until added to the property market bubble will pierce their own to cut interest rates by.
Moderator: I remember your last meeting with a point of view, you want to maintain a strong dollar that the United States there is a way to fight a war in Iran, this is the best way to put.
Wang: So I said that if there is such a case, as the U.S. interest rate is Japanese yen, the euro higher and higher the top of the lift, and finally added to stab the domestic property market asset bubble, we see that the property market fell sharply, it must be Iran war began. because in this case there is no means to maintain the U.S. It's stable currencies. U.S. Dollar hegemony is the embodiment of comprehensive national strength, not only economic, financial strength on the inside, as well as military strength in it. Why do I say it is the beginning of the Iranian war? from the inception of the euro, threatening U.S. hegemony is the euro, the euro was born in January 1, 1999, within ten days of the birth of the dollar to rise, and set the 1:1 against the U.S. dollar, but within ten days to rise to 1 Euro $ 1.19, indicating are very optimistic about the international capital was EUR prospects appeared .3 22nd Kosovo war, the war devastated the euro hit until the second half of 2003 only appeared after the strong euro against the dollar, has been to fall. or the most Worse, when one euro only for $ 0.79, which is trading session of the moment, basically did not receive this level, but also to a level of 0.8.
then began a period of the euro's strength, followed by the war in Iraq . to fight the war in Iraq and the euro down for a while, but then again up. up after the U.S. had to use interest rates to force the solution to the. In fact I think the U.S. is the most reluctant to use interest rates to solve the balance of their current account interest rate The problem, he is really no other way. If the dollar after interest rates rise to 5, the dollar was pierce the bubble, then no way, can only be used to resolve the war. Because one is the requirement of international capital to make money, But more important is to require security. This time, we also analyzed, I also think that Iran is a war, what war is like the Iraq war, is sent hundreds of thousands of U.S. ground occupation, may also be difficult . One is the terrain of Iran, like Iraq, is not as vast flat desert is flat, but rigid foam, can also run the tank, but Iran is a plateau. all of a sudden steep between Iran and Iraq go up one thousand meters above sea level, In this case the U.S. military is very hard to accept, even though he accounted for in Iraq.
Iran is a military power again, is the strongest power in the Middle East, the population is more than Iraq. In this case, to fight Iran, then accounted for not much benefit. American accounted for Iraq, in fortification, put on defensive in nature. From this point of view Iran war may be in the form of bombing aircraft to bomb those nuclear facilities. But there may be to use nuclear weapons, with plenty of lean bombs to explode. Recently the British three islands in more than 20 environmental monitoring stations that now also monitored in 2003 when the Gulf War, those poor oil rich material produced by the bomb, you get those two small nuclear bomb underground rock, it may cause millions of square meters of nuclear contamination, so that'll crushed to death in Europe, which is terrible. so the future of Europe, suddenly bleak economic future, the international capital will see in this where there is a problem.
with the Europeans do not understand the last war in Kosovo, and later see, can require the war to the Iraq war to the war, this time I am afraid not to say that along with the United States to fight Iran. as well as Russia last been seen, when in 2003 German-French alliance and Russia both inside and outside the Security Council adopted many measures in the military operations against the United States. This time we saw when the United States that sanctions against Iran, said the United States want to military action against Iran, in the beginning of February of this year, Russia sold Iran 30 sets of his air defense missiles, deployed in key facilities, including nuclear facilities around. Both sides in the game, you want to make I will not let you play, you want to use the bombing way to do face to face between the direct military conflict, which is more frightening.
as we see near the end of the last Gulf War, when Russia's Pacific Fleet has been sent to the Indian Ocean, and French to his aircraft carrier was. But the real round you want to where to how to fight? last time the Kosovo war, Russia sent 200 paratroopers to the airport, the airport one, how many thousands of U.S. troops to enter, how do you do? If you hit it 200 paratroopers to that of Russia. this time we do not rule out sending peacekeeping troops in Europe will not let you fight, you fight not to fight Iran, then, is to hit me. This conflict in the U.S. and Europe together, will be affected, of course, will first affect the Europe. because it is close to playing in Europe.
Moderator: this will be the stock market, futures market, what impact?
Wang: It certainly goes without saying, we should hit the high futures. I met in the preceding talking about this issue, and now are hesitant to guard against a U.S. dollar to break the bubble, the United States to use military power to maintain its U.S. dollar currency hegemony, it is possible to generate a new conflict in the Gulf, the conflict will directly affect the supply of oil. that time is to hit the 120,130,150 U.S. dollars a barrel of oil, and no wonder that, by that time may have money can not buy. because in that place where the war to interrupt the supply of. oil supply Once the first interruption of the European economy, which is where the United States in this war can affect the euro is an important factor. The same is true in China, we almost from the Gulf to oil has accounted for nearly half of this place if there is a problem China is also greatly affected. Another point, if there is this conflict, the prospect of anyone better off.
, but such a huge international capital, if the war together, the U.S. real estate, the stock market is broken, then Europe edges affected by the war not much better, a lot of international capital have no place to go, how to do it? is estimated to impact futures market. because after all there are China, India, strong economic growth in these countries, the demand for these products is very strong physical and investment These are not it be better? people to buy anyway. U.S. real estate is not broken, blowing bubbles under the house, and I hope to have a later bought a bigger fool than I take, but by that time we all smart, not The line is, this bubble will burst. but not the same as the economy every year in China to maintain 8%, 9% of the rate of inflation, India 6%, 7%, which is still up, for oil, minerals, food, etc. demand is still very strong, in this place may be a greater chance of reaching arbitrage. So when a large number of international capital freed from the U.S. capital, to go to Europe is not very good futures that might be a turn. the future will not only impact on oil futures, may also impact on metal futures, and even the impact of agricultural futures, including grain, oil, wood, leather or are likely to be adversely affected. For us, must be mentally prepared for that.
Moderator: Commodity Futures the trend is reversed with the dollar, the dollar weakened to enhance the value of these products, as you say, once the war breaks out, the dollar becomes strong, is not it should be the reverse of what?
Wang: My view is that you hit the euro, is not able to put it crushed, and now we do not know. because it is our first two can be crushed on the situation of war to defend the U.S. dollar currency hegemony understanding is not clear. Europeans and Russia, etc. awareness of this problem is not very clear, this time they have been awakened, has been very clear to see. The purpose of the U.S. to fight Iran, the so-called Gulf War, the prospect of three is kind of how. because after all Europe, especially Russia's military power is very strong. can not say Iran war together, the dollar will be strong. dollar strong, then it has to be real estate hit, provided there is a crash. do not have a crash, as long as the cross at this level a little bit slightly down, the economy can withstand also, the drastic fall of the situation will certainly deep hands. hands results will not make a strong rebound in the dollar, the outlook is hard to say.
Moderator: Could you talk more about if this happens, the Chinese economy will have any effect?
Wang: For China, we In it first we would call the United States, Europe, to fight for the object. Europe will take us, the United States should pull us because we are bigger. We are a balance of a weight, which side which side we added power will be very strong. For example, the manufacturing recession in the United States now, if not a recession, then it will not last regular item pulled spreads over eight thousand U.S. dollars. in the war he wants to consume more resources, consume more manufactured products, will have profound impact in China. If China with the United States stand together to ensure that the needs of U.S. war material, to ensure that the needs of the U.S. daily consumption, which is certainly a boon to the United States of support for American power is not to say The. On the other hand we withdraw the fire, we both do not Xiangbang, the United States can not stand.
the other hand, over one hundred billion trade deficit last year in the United States 7, Europe has more than one hundred billion U.S. dollars, if really so, then play I think that trade relations between the U.S. and Europe will also change. the United States over one hundred billion U.S. dollars surplus may be difficult to enjoy, and if the transfer to China, then, it touches on exports to China increased demand for China, we will get a chance. In short, the conflict between the U.S. and Europe to China, we now need to choose, you need to determine. of course, first we do not want the conflict, we will not take sides, we will not disclose information with the government Who is going to form an alliance, we must play an intermediary role, try not to let their conflict. In addition, we do not want this war expansion. war expansion in China no good, because our oil channel is interrupted, have limited economic growth, which is not a good thing for us. So we should strive for both sides to have a good way to resolve. But the problem does not depend on our own desire of China, we do not want to play, and they both have contradictory way, they want hands-on, we can not stop.
the U.S. economy will not decline?
Moderator: Some people worry that the U.S. economy will not collapse down? If you like what you said It's real estate bubble burst, the stock market bubble burst, the war also did not play to save the dollar and the role of the U.S. economy if you think in this case, the decline of the U.S. economy will continue, because the cause of the global economy ?
Wang: This effect is very big. This I think is a great possibility. We see that Japan has experienced a bubble. Japan is not strong powerful? world's second largest country. Why is it the early 90 of a stock market collapse of the real estate bubble than a decade the Japanese economy have get up again. bubble itself if there is a bubble had broken that day, not always grow up, only to be blown large and never be broken bubble. When the Japanese bubble broke, the Japanese national wealth is very large, Japan's trade surplus has always been, until today.
But the U.S. trade surplus now and it? 20 years of deficit, the United States last year is a deficit in investment income from overseas the. Japanese overseas investment income until today is surplus, trade surplus has been over ten years are black, but the bubble burst, to crawl out from this pit, the business profits continue to fill the hole to go to the foam, only slow coming. the United States the first bubble is larger than Japan, the second is now even overseas investment income deficit, trade deficit is also not such a breakthrough in Japan ten years of continuous correction of the opportunity to be able to climb out. So the bubble to the United States broken, and certainly more frightening than Japan, its recovery time is longer. such as Japan have such a big surplus in investment income from overseas, there is such a large trade surplus, but also ten years before they crawl out of, the United States are the deficit, how is it crawl? will climb much more difficult than in Japan. unless it is desperate to use its military strength, hold his dollar hegemony, otherwise there is no way to go.
Moderator: According to your argument, because China's economy will the collapse of the U.S. economy a great loss? because the U.S. is China's main export areas?
Wang: Can not say so, the reason for China so highly dependent on the U.S. market because of our large financial surplus, the savings rate because of our too high. savings rate is too high for an important reason for economic reform in China, in breaking the big pot egalitarianism after the formation of the income distribution gap in time, we do not have time to establish a social security system, not the timely establishment of the community transfer payment system, so the original time allocation of widening income gap is not resolved when the redistribution of it. This ability to continuously improve savings, investment and continuously enhanced, but our consumption not come up. We are out with the United States singly, and what we produced, but consumer demand is not open, the United States is not out of production, consumer demand open. requires us to fill. Once the improvement of the socialist system, the spending power released, and we are not a problem. < br> Moderator: Why should the former while the introduction of income tax for luxury goods in it?
Wang: There is such a consideration, China is a country of scarce resources, and high consumption mainly for large displacement cars, consumption of too much land area of the mansion, is the limit for such products, there are factors in which it is reasonable.
Moderator: You said the U.S. economy as a problem, on the international futures commodity market is a disaster? This is a two-way , the U.S. economy on the consumption of goods is the largest.
Wang: short term disaster, long-term is good news. dollar collapse, broke down the spending power of the United States, but also spending so much oil, steel, nonferrous metals ...

Hu Yin generation of beautiful talented girl dreams of life (Figure)

 As President Putin took office, Russia turning away from the vulnerable since the state of the Soviet Union, on the world stage to start the recovery process, the relationship between Russia and the Western world has entered a new era, Western countries suddenly found the old days, Russia, the resignation suddenly disappeared, but the West is difficult to adapt to a sudden strong Russia, and therefore the relationship between the two sides become increasingly tense.
the information revolution brought about by billions of people and the political awakening active participation in politics increased, the field of international security can be manipulated in a decline, Islam and Christianity the world's long-term rift between rich and poor years of north-south conflict, there are two of the most intense competition have joined recently: This is the free schools of the old democratic capitalist countries and the rapid development of the emerging capitalist countries the energy battle, which is characterized by a more obvious and more authoritarian state capitalism model of development; another is between the old West and the emerging countries competition, the Southeast Asian countries, China and Russia, representatives of the latter.
competition between the two development models compete for the spiritual superiority is not a simple race. From the late 80s into the new century, human and other resources on a large scale redistribution. The results show that those who benefit from a thorough unswervingly liberal democratic capitalism over the country. In the new century, which occurred in the process of stagnation and even occurred in some places the back.
also appeared in the energy field of great change. If the last century, half of the past 90 years, most of the energy resources are in under the control of Western oil giants, then 10 years later, the situation has completely different. Today, most of the energy exploitation of the country belong to their company. the West, especially Europe's energy dependence with the nature of growth, even if it is only theoretical at present.
many people think that the current set off political and propaganda campaign against Russia, because Russia's enhanced international status, or because it is the political deepening of the central authoritarian tendencies. This conclusion can only be considered partially correct. happens is that the status of the recovery of the Russian Western countries are catching up with old The decline of the appeal and diplomatic skills of its decline. This is due to setbacks in Iraq, the United States, the European Union because of the crisis facing the new system appears to power as before, the recent winner to ensure that the future status will not be weak and rallied together to counterattack. < br> So the main reason lead to a new confrontation is very profound. Russia in many ways has become an international political and economic progress occurred in the great symbol. against the new competition will be even more profound, which is even stronger in Russia The general reaction, of course, it will not necessarily continue for a long time.
in new challenges and is likely to re-close. but only in the relative unity of the military confrontation between the re-emergence of institutional re-established when possible.
as before the United States to focus on NATO, and to maintain its position in Europe , and provoke new military and political confrontation may be its goal. There is also a very realistic plan, that is, through Japan, Korea, Australia, New Zealand and other countries, will NATO become a global military and political base.
established a strong advocate of responsible countries of the Commonwealth itself is rational, it should lead the struggle against new threats of international order. However, in the new era, let a group of people against another group of people competition not only difficult to become a reality, but also harmful, because it laid the new system of ideological differences and the seeds of confrontation.
the great international political and economic progress, strength and resources, is feeling the rapid redistribution of the external environment become more difficult to predict. Therefore, in terms of the new century, it features about the militarization of international relations and even the outbreak of an arms race. If Russia on the hook, and began to re-militarization of the global fuel, NATO would be more likely to continue eastward expansion.
can be expected, those emerging system, in Bank also retired. Recently the global economy has also been a destructive trend that use of the WTO is the founder of the organization the old capitalist countries interests. In general, trade protectionism, trade and investment conflicts warming is a precursor to one of the military conflict.
the ideological field will undoubtedly become increasingly intense competition. Democracy has become a mutual attack. the United States to reshape their attraction. Unfortunately, in the face of intense competition environment, the pursuit of the noble values of democracy struggle will inevitably characterized by geo-political conflict. This will hinder the emerging learned. At that time, severe pressure from the outside to consolidate the conservative elements of the Russian position. Now, those who are committed to implementing necessary reforms, it is easy to be seen as a spy for the rival countries.
diverse new competition the worst consequences brought about by global challenges of international cooperation in reducing the efficiency and quality. These challenges include the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, environmental degradation, the powerful Islamic extremism.
time frame for the new century already foresee .5-7 years later, Europe will emerge from the current institutional crisis and accelerate its economic pace. The United States will bid farewell to Iraq, out of the emotional return to normal, but introduced a more cautious as a positive policy. to resolve the current energy irrational confrontation, the establishment of energy in the European Union's political and economic pre-conditions will have.
between the two capitalist model The new confrontation, the ideological basis for the new competition might be broken. After all, these two models with the Start hinder us to find answers to global challenges, these challenges require us closer together. a new round of cooperation will be 90 over the previous century, the cooperation is more stable. then cooperation is the victor in the Cold War under the command and, therefore, doomed to complete failure it is.
but the era of large-scale cooperation will only come in the following circumstances: that man will not commit systematic errors (ie, structured and militarization of the new competition), no New Great War broke out. a new war is most likely in the still in a weak party, Russia should how to do it?
First of all, after years of losses and has been lowered after the blindly optimistic mood of victory is understandable, but quickly abandoned the idea. the global economy all the forecasts show the development of Russia in the near future can not raise its share of global GDP, now 2.5% in the month, if Russia can not achieve an annual average of 8% -10% of the steady increase in the amount of its share of the points also showed atrophy potential. Not only that, last few years to help Russia achieve a lot of factors (the global level can control the overall decline in the achievements of China's economy had been before the energy price rise) in the long term, and carries serious problems.
Second, the new century is the century of competition, need to shift to a knowledge economy. energy economy advantage is only temporary. must continue to improve the political system that prevent it from sliding into national development stalled dictatorship. in the economic and geopolitical conditions are good times, if you do not use semi-authoritarian state capitalism and the way to the new development paradigm shift, then Russia's future is destined to decline.
Third, you need to do everything possible to prevent further militarization and new competition institutionalized, as it is no good for long-term interests of Russia. Therefore, they should adhere to the line is to prevent the further eastward expansion and consolidation of NATO to guard against the establishment of alliances, the disarmament negotiations. Experience shows that many things are possible above be re-militarization of the use.
against the re-militarization does not mean giving in the new basis and update the case of military doctrine to revive the military. At the same time, the resumption of military power should be sensible to establish a clear demand for unilateral rather than in response to base on, even if it is for other non-symmetric response behavior.
Fourth, the power required to cooperate with all responsible, to prevent nuclear weapons, new large-scale conflict, the further proliferation of nuclear conflict in particular . they may cause deterioration of the international political environment, which is difficult to control. struggle for peace once again become a top priority issues of global political one.
Fifthly, the situation has become very complicated. and the Soviet Union during the phase ratio, the world's dependence on Russia have essentially improved. to expand, strengthen the situation of the world, training in the new phase of the new approach the company to maintain and strengthen the international status of Russia and its people.
Sixth, ; new era of confrontation, There is no reason to take a tough approach, it will only make the Russian lost just accumulated less powerful.
fact, Russia is no longer a failed state in an attempt to recover lost everything. He should start to re-bloom courtesy, not sarcastic smile, do not disregard the trivial acts of mischief. The most important thing is that Russia needs the construction of the new world to occupy a favorable position, not just content to recover lost or recovered because of incompetence to hand over the site.

May well usher in the second round of U.S. avalanche

 A shares or dollar will mark the mid-term adjustment
likely usher in the second round of U.S. stocks rose avalanche
Zhang Tingbin
not necessarily because of economic recovery, which may well signal a sharp dollar depreciation, particularly this time.
in the past 10 trading days, the Shanghai index rose 9.6%, the Dow Jones index rose 11.62%, U.S. stock market just like flip over, short almost disappeared, which makes a lot of market participants somehow.
If we say, A rise in shares also find a temporary economic is not an economic phenomenon but a monetary phenomenon. the international level most economists think the economy is still recovering from more distance. The past two months, China's foreign exchange reserves data show that hot money flows into China again, indicating that they are not optimistic about U.S. District assets.
if economic fundamentals and capital flows from the angle of rebound in U.S. stocks can not find the reason, then, most likely, this is the main market for the dollar devaluation expected response.
with this Verify that the dollar as investors are not optimistic about the long-term trends, they constantly throw U.S. Treasury bonds, resulting in U.S. Treasury interest rates. Last week's close, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bill rate from the beginning of the year rose to 3.65% 2.23% 30 years The Treasury bill rate of 2.68% from the beginning of the year rose to 4.54%.
an interesting phenomenon is that, since since March 2009, the Dow Jones Index and U.S. Treasury long-term interest rates out of the very 10, 30-year bonds, respectively, in the June 10 reached 3.94%, 4.76% for the year high, while the Dow Jones index in the June 11 rally points to reach 8875 high stage. Since then the long-term interest rates of government bonds and the Dow Jones index also rose again after the callback.
rise in U.S. Treasury long-term interest rates will drive the U.S. Treasury bonds, local bonds and corporate bonds overall increase in interest rates, which makes issuers have to pay more interest, and Now the U.S. government already heavily indebted, the total debt has more than 100% of GDP, while local governments in California that has been close to bankruptcy.
currently not say that U.S. companies do nothing, the U.S. government even to pay interest, can only release more Treasury to print more U.S. dollars in arrears, but it makes people lose confidence in the dollar faster hh which has become a dollar can not escape the vicious circle.
even more frightening is that, if market interest rates in dollar bonds continued to rise, then, it will establish a low interest rate expectations on the range of U.S. dollar interest rate swap derivatives Total in millions of billions of dollars, once the high interest rates to make it larger than the CDS when the bubble collapses, it will lead to more large-scale avalanche of financial derivatives.
time, the U.S. government and financial institutions will face the second round severe contraction of liquidity, and then forced to issue more U.S. dollars, which in turn further dollar will lose its credibility, become the object of selling the U.S. dollar interest rates will further soar hh until one day, the market consensus, the U.S. government no longer the current version of the U.S. dollar may be interest, as a pure dollar credit note will be the stage of history, or re-linking with gold.
This is a lot of people who strive to deny the logic, but the market is a step by step proof with this logic. Since the first weekend in March 2009 close, the dollar index, a very ugly out of line. If from January 2002 to about 120 points since the process of watching the dollar index, the dollar likely out of the second round of the avalanche market, the first round of 71 dropped from 120 points, which can stop you turn 50?
index of the dollar against the euro from the dollar-weighted ratio of six notes from, in essence, is the price of the dollar against other notes . This will not be sufficient to measure the true extent of the future depreciation of the dollar, because when the leader of credit notes for goods sharply devalued dollar mm, the other notes will have to follow. The true measure of future real depreciation of the dollar is the degree of depreciation of dollar against commodities, in particular, dollar equivalent of commodities in general devaluation of gold mm.
trend line from the gold watch, from the technical analysis, since March 2008 since, gold has surpassed 1,000 U.S. dollars mark for the completion of the shock after the consolidation compaction of the upper punch and a firm basis of 1000 U.S. dollars.
Once the firm $ 1,000 gold price, then it opens a huge upside: 1. After the gold price is $ 1,000 for the stage will rise not just 100 U.S. dollars; $ 2.1000 more than the price of gold, with regression.
then there is no chance to turn the tide in the U.S. only down?
them or still the heart of the last chances, but has been unable to reverse the trend. such as the United States on the new Sino-US strategic dialogue track unilateral expect: that is, 1. to persuade the Chinese to buy U.S. Treasury bonds at the last original capital; 2. coercion significant appreciation of Chinese RMB against the U.S. dollar. As the RMB is not in the U.S. dollar index basket, the sharp appreciation of the RMB equivalent to U.S. covert shift the burden to the Chinese but no side effects.
However, the two can not be achieved .1 expect. foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds are bought, the existing mm cash is very limited, even if all of the saved dollars to buy U.S. Treasury bonds crisis is only 2. China's RMB revaluation has been before a lingering fear, not so soon forget the lesson.
view of this, the second round of the avalanche of dollars will be basically irreversible. And when this trend to continue to interpret the words of the future, in the global capital, financial and commodity markets, gold will rise non-renewable commodities, goods will be renewable non-renewable commodities rose; bulk goods will rise relative to A shares, A shares will rise relative to U.S. stocks; U.S. stocks will rise relative to the euro the euro against the dollar and U.S. Treasury prices. In short, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries is the worst investment in future products.
rise in China's A shares have a double reason: first, last year because of extreme liquidity crunch lead to falling asset prices, liquidity is a result of the release of economic recovery, stock market rebound; Second, due to the expected depreciation of the dollar and the influx of hot money to push to re-stock index. A stock index future may continue to rise, but because the Shanghai index has risen early more than 100% has not been adjusted, retail and the Christian Democrats into the market again, A shares at any time there is the risk of technical adjustments, as adjusted to the U.S. dollar and depends mainly on the strength of China's reform and tackling.
in such a complex situation in China is now the opportunity to get rid of the U.S. Treasury trap. There are two ways to get rid of: 1. Externally, new foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. treasury bonds are no longer firmly, and even seize the opportunity to sell Treasuries and switch into the purchase of gold, oil and other mineral commodities and overseas; 2. continued loose monetary policy, pushing up stock, to encourage residents and investors to sell stocks, investment real estate, purchase of physical gold (as early as hands need to buy physical gold Otherwise, the public once the chase is likely to have no market price.) dollar collapse so as to prevent future risk of the world to create conditions for return to the gold standard.
Now, the U.S. credit crisis has not only worried about the future, has been interpreted as the imminent crisis of the. It is time to wake up suddenly!
(The author is a senior financial commentators are for reference only investor making your own risk ztb6006@sina.com)
inflation era of the Chinese nation to defend the ultimate investment strategy
there is no real wealth
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Zhang Tingbin new book,
Choice 2008: Are we going to embrace a global financial crisis
originally contained in the never been so close, it is a topic of common concern and anxiety has never been so consistent, as a is afterglow end, more and more Americans to worry about tomorrow, and some have not since the mortgage; the temptation of the Christmas business, more and more credit card overdraft suffered last superpower is experiencing unprecedented debt distress, while the elite seem to have this helpless hh
on this side, for the yuan to accelerate the proliferation of excess liquidity, scholars argue is being upgraded, and even diametrically opposed mm mm pack of faster appreciation in the eyes of out of pocket, who flow into the pockets, they how to defend their wealth?
2008, the world would burst a global financial crisis? How will China respond? is becoming increasingly lie in our minds bigger question mark.
the global financial crisis has inevitably
2008 on the issue is, the subprime crisis to an end, or a more large-scale dollar crisis and a prelude to the global financial crisis?
over time goes on, after bearish U.S. economic outlook and the dollar economists, such as more and more bold to speak clearly after the retirement of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, Stephen Morgan Stanley's well-known scholars. Roach has been the United States into recession in 2008 The probability increased to 50%. and those who still sing the voice of the U.S. economy has become increasingly lonely scholar.
United States in the end there is no way to turn around its U.S. dollar debt crisis? why so powerful a superpower, would like a Night has become so fragile?
to freeze three feet a day. today's debt crisis, the actual dollar boom-bust financial order, the inevitable result.
is well known that the pursuit of continuous value-added capital nature. the pursuit of increasing profit, the first owner of the profit out of capital consumption, material goods into the expanded reproduction, with the inevitable result is more supply than demand for goods, surplus goods the economic crisis there. In order to re-balance the supply and demand, small enough to be poured into the sea of milk, the war destroyed large capacity of supply and demand, a variety of approaches have been adopted voluntarily or involuntarily through.
20 half of the century's two world wars, was to hit the world economy Back to the serious shortage of supply and demand are the original state, which makes the capital to open a long period of self-value. Meanwhile, the world the brutality of war, the rise of Eastern bloc was strong, making the Western mainstream elites were forced to design at a higher level the whole system of economic operations.
the core of this new system should have the following meaning: first, expanding the capital territory, the remaining transport of goods and capital out of the development of new markets; Second, national welfare, to avoid the relative earnings of workers employers shrinking too fast, too fast, which is shrinking relative to consumption; third, to encourage consumer credit, including housing, cars and credit cards of all kinds of consumer loans. Fourth, the most sophisticated, it vigorously develop the capital market, the establishment of a virtual financial derivatives system. in the consumer out of money, but also to encourage its withdrawal from the supply, which makes the supply and consumption of material goods can be remained relatively balanced. Meanwhile, the growing number of surplus capital to financial derivatives of the Crazy foam expansion, foam vertices in its short its exchange rate and asset prices, hot money in the elimination of the target country can be part of the supply capacity, increasing wealth of the sovereign state, maintaining a strong dollar, and stimulate domestic consumption to drive global consumption.
now that all roads have gradually come to an end .1, with the post-war Europe, Japan, in South America, Southeast Asia, China, Russia, India, Africa, the continuous development of the global supply of goods and capital surplus so far has been full; 2, after the Cold War, the state welfare greatly reduce the power of external pressure, the collapse of competition between countries power greatly enhanced, the situation reversed welfare society, accelerate the widening gap between rich and poor countries; 3, is the spread of the U.S. subprime housing and credit crisis that consumer borrowing has reached the limit.
As for the capacity of the numerous virtual financial capital Magic Bottle For example, the financial system as a virtual derivatives build a tall building. The bottom of base money issued by the central bank, to be covered with a layer M0 (cash in circulation), M1 (M0 + demand deposits), M2 (M1 + time deposits, Non-checking savings deposits), M3 (M2 + private institutions and companies large time deposits), in M3 over there L (M3 + a variety of securities), and in a variety of securities on, and create endless variety of derivatives, currency and even re-creation of the central bank has been out of the fetters of hh
This is a typical inverted pyramid structure, with the financial derivatives market continues to accelerate the development, the more to the upper, larger scale. According to the Bank of China has collected more than one set of data shows that in 2005 only the United States MO market liquidity all of its 1%, M2 also accounted for 11%, a variety of asset-backed securities accounted for 13%, while the top financial derivatives account for more to 75% hh At the same time, the foundations of the towering buildings are increasingly fragile stage of the Bretton Woods system, which is a very solid foundation in U.S. dollars (USD + gold); in 1971, the U.S. announced the decoupling of the dollar and gold , it becomes the currency mm dollars of credit card; 2001, with the opening of the euro, the trying to get a piece of the action, the foundation of this paper has been divided into mm by the U.S. dumping caused the current global financial crisis, the collapse of order, and reconstruction is inevitable.
so, after another question is whether the United States to use the delay the outbreak of the financial crisis sooner or later it?
rushing to board a Chinese dollar Wool After the Chinese reform and opening up three decades of sustained development, is already filling up the wings, it is rich wool. And if the Chinese succeed, then Southeast Asia, India and other countries will Wangfengpimi.
achieve this goal have a few conditions: First, the target country to implement a floating exchange rate system, capital convertibility fundamental freedoms; Second, the dominant country's currency is strong enough to control the global pace of hot money in great quantities; third, no worries led economy; four target countries of the crisis on the leading little benefit or harm of state. If the U.S. dollar against the yen the year, incomplete: 1, today the RMB is still a managed floating exchange rate system between the community, still most of the non-convertible capital projects; 2, the era of U.S. dominance over the dollar policy has been unable to independently control the world's flow of funds; 3, the U.S. sub- an increasing credit crisis is spreading, is in a period of financial turbulence in the prelude; 4, U.S. economy is highly complementary, flesh and blood, and its close an unprecedented degree of power, has become a prosperity, a loss for both patterns.
more strange is that in real conditions, if certain forces in the United States insists it will be unaffected its benefits, the first victims. The mechanism is a serious crisis in the U.S. subprime mortgage liquidity crunch in the United States, if by depreciation of the dollar and force the yuan to appreciate, even though relief can be disguised as part of U.S. dollar debt held by China, but will inevitably lead to more dollar liquidity out of the financial system, would have been very vulnerable chain of U.S. financial resources worse, or even ahead of its breaking . Meanwhile, the profits made in China have been pushed to the limit, the sharp appreciation of the yuan, labor, land, raw materials prices, will lead to China's export of U.S. goods prices, accelerating inflation in the United States. In short, it will turn into a Speed's Benchmark interest rates to decline, while rising U.S. inflation, the two head-on collision, when the U.S. dollar as dollar the trigger point for a comprehensive implementation of the crisis has been close.
very beneficial to China, the July 21, 2005 foreign exchange reform since, although the external pressure and public opinion, including the renminbi to accelerate the appreciation of induction, and its appreciation of 13.3 so far %, then it could trigger a property bubble from bursting of the crisis is still at least 20% of the appreciation of the range. more favorable, the Chinese good appreciation of the renminbi by domestic and foreign hot money speculation and asset bubbles, a large number of financial institutions through the IPO, has been in a very large extent, eased the situation and improve the financial system, and as long as the appreciation of the renminbi to continue to adhere to the enrich the social security fund holders, and vigorously support private enterprise, innovation and enterprise market, prompting China to raise industrial concentration degree, and to achieve the so I quite understand that some Chinese officials and scholars, the existing international financial system in peril when the mouth, like In a year or so may have to implement the RMB exchange rate and capital account liberalization, have to rush to board the Titanic, > After the economic development of China, a country, for China, the edge of the existing international financial order are concerned, the future trend of international financial turbulence, the natural self-protection should be the first, and then save.
of China and words, the most urgent need to address that, due to faster appreciation of the expectations continue to strengthen, continue to raise interest rates, the U.S. dollar continue to cut interest rates, the global speculative hot money flows into China accelerated, resulting in abnormal proliferation of domestic liquidity, the substantial increase in market circulation of RMB limited growth in material goods, the stock market, property market asset bubble inevitably intensified, accelerated inflation, household savings months, there have been issued special treasury bonds of RMB appreciation is expected to reverse the opportunity, but was called month, China's anti-inflation and asset bubbles in the last resort, but also a fundamental policy of official and civil mm increase in gold reserves mm large-scale increase in China for every 1,000 tons of gold to $ 840 / oz gold price calculation will be reduced by nearly 30 billion foreign exchange reserves dollars, reduce domestic liquidity of about RMB 220 billion yuan, increased 0.5% over the effect of the deposit reserve ratio, the central bank need not pay any costs; even better, will result in a massive increase in China's gold reserves for the future of the yuan to become international trading and reserve currency has laid a solid foundation; wonderful is that it is not afraid to accelerate the appreciation of RMB, the more appreciation of the renminbi, which is relatively more expensive to buy gold!
most amazing is that when a credit note for the U.S. dollar and other foundation inverted pyramid building ever falls apart, the world's financial and economic necessity to find a new, as the only value recognized by the world ruler, and a solid foundation in this new reconstruction of the New World on the economic and financial order. In other words, big money washing plates, re-determine the However, with the development of technology, and its inevitable growing alternative. even if its position as the leading energy can not be changed, then it was only able to support the middle of this century, not to mention any of the countries want to control the world's major oil reserves, Even as a military superpower like the United States have skills needed. so gold inevitable golden phoenix has the potential to become the currency of the Internet age sovereign.
China's fortunes is such magic, but vista seems to dead end, almost set the kill but why exactly can be a spectacular mm Golden China tons, accounting for only about 1% of foreign exchange reserves.
course, if China can the firm to select and implement the gold at all costs strategy, which will circumvent domestic and international crisis, China can also become one with the East Asia once played such a role.
Chinese rejection of isolationism reason is very simple, not to mention the Chinese economy with the world is so deep, as human beings, no matter what skin color, whether it is Chinese, the United States , Iranians, Africans hh we only have one Earth, we really are family.