May well usher in the second round of U.S. avalanche

 A shares or dollar will mark the mid-term adjustment
likely usher in the second round of U.S. stocks rose avalanche
Zhang Tingbin
not necessarily because of economic recovery, which may well signal a sharp dollar depreciation, particularly this time.
in the past 10 trading days, the Shanghai index rose 9.6%, the Dow Jones index rose 11.62%, U.S. stock market just like flip over, short almost disappeared, which makes a lot of market participants somehow.
If we say, A rise in shares also find a temporary economic is not an economic phenomenon but a monetary phenomenon. the international level most economists think the economy is still recovering from more distance. The past two months, China's foreign exchange reserves data show that hot money flows into China again, indicating that they are not optimistic about U.S. District assets.
if economic fundamentals and capital flows from the angle of rebound in U.S. stocks can not find the reason, then, most likely, this is the main market for the dollar devaluation expected response.
with this Verify that the dollar as investors are not optimistic about the long-term trends, they constantly throw U.S. Treasury bonds, resulting in U.S. Treasury interest rates. Last week's close, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bill rate from the beginning of the year rose to 3.65% 2.23% 30 years The Treasury bill rate of 2.68% from the beginning of the year rose to 4.54%.
an interesting phenomenon is that, since since March 2009, the Dow Jones Index and U.S. Treasury long-term interest rates out of the very 10, 30-year bonds, respectively, in the June 10 reached 3.94%, 4.76% for the year high, while the Dow Jones index in the June 11 rally points to reach 8875 high stage. Since then the long-term interest rates of government bonds and the Dow Jones index also rose again after the callback.
rise in U.S. Treasury long-term interest rates will drive the U.S. Treasury bonds, local bonds and corporate bonds overall increase in interest rates, which makes issuers have to pay more interest, and Now the U.S. government already heavily indebted, the total debt has more than 100% of GDP, while local governments in California that has been close to bankruptcy.
currently not say that U.S. companies do nothing, the U.S. government even to pay interest, can only release more Treasury to print more U.S. dollars in arrears, but it makes people lose confidence in the dollar faster hh which has become a dollar can not escape the vicious circle.
even more frightening is that, if market interest rates in dollar bonds continued to rise, then, it will establish a low interest rate expectations on the range of U.S. dollar interest rate swap derivatives Total in millions of billions of dollars, once the high interest rates to make it larger than the CDS when the bubble collapses, it will lead to more large-scale avalanche of financial derivatives.
time, the U.S. government and financial institutions will face the second round severe contraction of liquidity, and then forced to issue more U.S. dollars, which in turn further dollar will lose its credibility, become the object of selling the U.S. dollar interest rates will further soar hh until one day, the market consensus, the U.S. government no longer the current version of the U.S. dollar may be interest, as a pure dollar credit note will be the stage of history, or re-linking with gold.
This is a lot of people who strive to deny the logic, but the market is a step by step proof with this logic. Since the first weekend in March 2009 close, the dollar index, a very ugly out of line. If from January 2002 to about 120 points since the process of watching the dollar index, the dollar likely out of the second round of the avalanche market, the first round of 71 dropped from 120 points, which can stop you turn 50?
index of the dollar against the euro from the dollar-weighted ratio of six notes from, in essence, is the price of the dollar against other notes . This will not be sufficient to measure the true extent of the future depreciation of the dollar, because when the leader of credit notes for goods sharply devalued dollar mm, the other notes will have to follow. The true measure of future real depreciation of the dollar is the degree of depreciation of dollar against commodities, in particular, dollar equivalent of commodities in general devaluation of gold mm.
trend line from the gold watch, from the technical analysis, since March 2008 since, gold has surpassed 1,000 U.S. dollars mark for the completion of the shock after the consolidation compaction of the upper punch and a firm basis of 1000 U.S. dollars.
Once the firm $ 1,000 gold price, then it opens a huge upside: 1. After the gold price is $ 1,000 for the stage will rise not just 100 U.S. dollars; $ 2.1000 more than the price of gold, with regression.
then there is no chance to turn the tide in the U.S. only down?
them or still the heart of the last chances, but has been unable to reverse the trend. such as the United States on the new Sino-US strategic dialogue track unilateral expect: that is, 1. to persuade the Chinese to buy U.S. Treasury bonds at the last original capital; 2. coercion significant appreciation of Chinese RMB against the U.S. dollar. As the RMB is not in the U.S. dollar index basket, the sharp appreciation of the RMB equivalent to U.S. covert shift the burden to the Chinese but no side effects.
However, the two can not be achieved .1 expect. foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. Treasury bonds are bought, the existing mm cash is very limited, even if all of the saved dollars to buy U.S. Treasury bonds crisis is only 2. China's RMB revaluation has been before a lingering fear, not so soon forget the lesson.
view of this, the second round of the avalanche of dollars will be basically irreversible. And when this trend to continue to interpret the words of the future, in the global capital, financial and commodity markets, gold will rise non-renewable commodities, goods will be renewable non-renewable commodities rose; bulk goods will rise relative to A shares, A shares will rise relative to U.S. stocks; U.S. stocks will rise relative to the euro the euro against the dollar and U.S. Treasury prices. In short, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries is the worst investment in future products.
rise in China's A shares have a double reason: first, last year because of extreme liquidity crunch lead to falling asset prices, liquidity is a result of the release of economic recovery, stock market rebound; Second, due to the expected depreciation of the dollar and the influx of hot money to push to re-stock index. A stock index future may continue to rise, but because the Shanghai index has risen early more than 100% has not been adjusted, retail and the Christian Democrats into the market again, A shares at any time there is the risk of technical adjustments, as adjusted to the U.S. dollar and depends mainly on the strength of China's reform and tackling.
in such a complex situation in China is now the opportunity to get rid of the U.S. Treasury trap. There are two ways to get rid of: 1. Externally, new foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. treasury bonds are no longer firmly, and even seize the opportunity to sell Treasuries and switch into the purchase of gold, oil and other mineral commodities and overseas; 2. continued loose monetary policy, pushing up stock, to encourage residents and investors to sell stocks, investment real estate, purchase of physical gold (as early as hands need to buy physical gold Otherwise, the public once the chase is likely to have no market price.) dollar collapse so as to prevent future risk of the world to create conditions for return to the gold standard.
Now, the U.S. credit crisis has not only worried about the future, has been interpreted as the imminent crisis of the. It is time to wake up suddenly!
(The author is a senior financial commentators are for reference only investor making your own risk ztb6006@sina.com)
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Choice 2008: Are we going to embrace a global financial crisis
originally contained in the never been so close, it is a topic of common concern and anxiety has never been so consistent, as a is afterglow end, more and more Americans to worry about tomorrow, and some have not since the mortgage; the temptation of the Christmas business, more and more credit card overdraft suffered last superpower is experiencing unprecedented debt distress, while the elite seem to have this helpless hh
on this side, for the yuan to accelerate the proliferation of excess liquidity, scholars argue is being upgraded, and even diametrically opposed mm mm pack of faster appreciation in the eyes of out of pocket, who flow into the pockets, they how to defend their wealth?
2008, the world would burst a global financial crisis? How will China respond? is becoming increasingly lie in our minds bigger question mark.
the global financial crisis has inevitably
2008 on the issue is, the subprime crisis to an end, or a more large-scale dollar crisis and a prelude to the global financial crisis?
over time goes on, after bearish U.S. economic outlook and the dollar economists, such as more and more bold to speak clearly after the retirement of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, Stephen Morgan Stanley's well-known scholars. Roach has been the United States into recession in 2008 The probability increased to 50%. and those who still sing the voice of the U.S. economy has become increasingly lonely scholar.
United States in the end there is no way to turn around its U.S. dollar debt crisis? why so powerful a superpower, would like a Night has become so fragile?
to freeze three feet a day. today's debt crisis, the actual dollar boom-bust financial order, the inevitable result.
is well known that the pursuit of continuous value-added capital nature. the pursuit of increasing profit, the first owner of the profit out of capital consumption, material goods into the expanded reproduction, with the inevitable result is more supply than demand for goods, surplus goods the economic crisis there. In order to re-balance the supply and demand, small enough to be poured into the sea of milk, the war destroyed large capacity of supply and demand, a variety of approaches have been adopted voluntarily or involuntarily through.
20 half of the century's two world wars, was to hit the world economy Back to the serious shortage of supply and demand are the original state, which makes the capital to open a long period of self-value. Meanwhile, the world the brutality of war, the rise of Eastern bloc was strong, making the Western mainstream elites were forced to design at a higher level the whole system of economic operations.
the core of this new system should have the following meaning: first, expanding the capital territory, the remaining transport of goods and capital out of the development of new markets; Second, national welfare, to avoid the relative earnings of workers employers shrinking too fast, too fast, which is shrinking relative to consumption; third, to encourage consumer credit, including housing, cars and credit cards of all kinds of consumer loans. Fourth, the most sophisticated, it vigorously develop the capital market, the establishment of a virtual financial derivatives system. in the consumer out of money, but also to encourage its withdrawal from the supply, which makes the supply and consumption of material goods can be remained relatively balanced. Meanwhile, the growing number of surplus capital to financial derivatives of the Crazy foam expansion, foam vertices in its short its exchange rate and asset prices, hot money in the elimination of the target country can be part of the supply capacity, increasing wealth of the sovereign state, maintaining a strong dollar, and stimulate domestic consumption to drive global consumption.
now that all roads have gradually come to an end .1, with the post-war Europe, Japan, in South America, Southeast Asia, China, Russia, India, Africa, the continuous development of the global supply of goods and capital surplus so far has been full; 2, after the Cold War, the state welfare greatly reduce the power of external pressure, the collapse of competition between countries power greatly enhanced, the situation reversed welfare society, accelerate the widening gap between rich and poor countries; 3, is the spread of the U.S. subprime housing and credit crisis that consumer borrowing has reached the limit.
As for the capacity of the numerous virtual financial capital Magic Bottle For example, the financial system as a virtual derivatives build a tall building. The bottom of base money issued by the central bank, to be covered with a layer M0 (cash in circulation), M1 (M0 + demand deposits), M2 (M1 + time deposits, Non-checking savings deposits), M3 (M2 + private institutions and companies large time deposits), in M3 over there L (M3 + a variety of securities), and in a variety of securities on, and create endless variety of derivatives, currency and even re-creation of the central bank has been out of the fetters of hh
This is a typical inverted pyramid structure, with the financial derivatives market continues to accelerate the development, the more to the upper, larger scale. According to the Bank of China has collected more than one set of data shows that in 2005 only the United States MO market liquidity all of its 1%, M2 also accounted for 11%, a variety of asset-backed securities accounted for 13%, while the top financial derivatives account for more to 75% hh At the same time, the foundations of the towering buildings are increasingly fragile stage of the Bretton Woods system, which is a very solid foundation in U.S. dollars (USD + gold); in 1971, the U.S. announced the decoupling of the dollar and gold , it becomes the currency mm dollars of credit card; 2001, with the opening of the euro, the trying to get a piece of the action, the foundation of this paper has been divided into mm by the U.S. dumping caused the current global financial crisis, the collapse of order, and reconstruction is inevitable.
so, after another question is whether the United States to use the delay the outbreak of the financial crisis sooner or later it?
rushing to board a Chinese dollar Wool After the Chinese reform and opening up three decades of sustained development, is already filling up the wings, it is rich wool. And if the Chinese succeed, then Southeast Asia, India and other countries will Wangfengpimi.
achieve this goal have a few conditions: First, the target country to implement a floating exchange rate system, capital convertibility fundamental freedoms; Second, the dominant country's currency is strong enough to control the global pace of hot money in great quantities; third, no worries led economy; four target countries of the crisis on the leading little benefit or harm of state. If the U.S. dollar against the yen the year, incomplete: 1, today the RMB is still a managed floating exchange rate system between the community, still most of the non-convertible capital projects; 2, the era of U.S. dominance over the dollar policy has been unable to independently control the world's flow of funds; 3, the U.S. sub- an increasing credit crisis is spreading, is in a period of financial turbulence in the prelude; 4, U.S. economy is highly complementary, flesh and blood, and its close an unprecedented degree of power, has become a prosperity, a loss for both patterns.
more strange is that in real conditions, if certain forces in the United States insists it will be unaffected its benefits, the first victims. The mechanism is a serious crisis in the U.S. subprime mortgage liquidity crunch in the United States, if by depreciation of the dollar and force the yuan to appreciate, even though relief can be disguised as part of U.S. dollar debt held by China, but will inevitably lead to more dollar liquidity out of the financial system, would have been very vulnerable chain of U.S. financial resources worse, or even ahead of its breaking . Meanwhile, the profits made in China have been pushed to the limit, the sharp appreciation of the yuan, labor, land, raw materials prices, will lead to China's export of U.S. goods prices, accelerating inflation in the United States. In short, it will turn into a Speed's Benchmark interest rates to decline, while rising U.S. inflation, the two head-on collision, when the U.S. dollar as dollar the trigger point for a comprehensive implementation of the crisis has been close.
very beneficial to China, the July 21, 2005 foreign exchange reform since, although the external pressure and public opinion, including the renminbi to accelerate the appreciation of induction, and its appreciation of 13.3 so far %, then it could trigger a property bubble from bursting of the crisis is still at least 20% of the appreciation of the range. more favorable, the Chinese good appreciation of the renminbi by domestic and foreign hot money speculation and asset bubbles, a large number of financial institutions through the IPO, has been in a very large extent, eased the situation and improve the financial system, and as long as the appreciation of the renminbi to continue to adhere to the enrich the social security fund holders, and vigorously support private enterprise, innovation and enterprise market, prompting China to raise industrial concentration degree, and to achieve the so I quite understand that some Chinese officials and scholars, the existing international financial system in peril when the mouth, like In a year or so may have to implement the RMB exchange rate and capital account liberalization, have to rush to board the Titanic, > After the economic development of China, a country, for China, the edge of the existing international financial order are concerned, the future trend of international financial turbulence, the natural self-protection should be the first, and then save.
of China and words, the most urgent need to address that, due to faster appreciation of the expectations continue to strengthen, continue to raise interest rates, the U.S. dollar continue to cut interest rates, the global speculative hot money flows into China accelerated, resulting in abnormal proliferation of domestic liquidity, the substantial increase in market circulation of RMB limited growth in material goods, the stock market, property market asset bubble inevitably intensified, accelerated inflation, household savings months, there have been issued special treasury bonds of RMB appreciation is expected to reverse the opportunity, but was called month, China's anti-inflation and asset bubbles in the last resort, but also a fundamental policy of official and civil mm increase in gold reserves mm large-scale increase in China for every 1,000 tons of gold to $ 840 / oz gold price calculation will be reduced by nearly 30 billion foreign exchange reserves dollars, reduce domestic liquidity of about RMB 220 billion yuan, increased 0.5% over the effect of the deposit reserve ratio, the central bank need not pay any costs; even better, will result in a massive increase in China's gold reserves for the future of the yuan to become international trading and reserve currency has laid a solid foundation; wonderful is that it is not afraid to accelerate the appreciation of RMB, the more appreciation of the renminbi, which is relatively more expensive to buy gold!
most amazing is that when a credit note for the U.S. dollar and other foundation inverted pyramid building ever falls apart, the world's financial and economic necessity to find a new, as the only value recognized by the world ruler, and a solid foundation in this new reconstruction of the New World on the economic and financial order. In other words, big money washing plates, re-determine the However, with the development of technology, and its inevitable growing alternative. even if its position as the leading energy can not be changed, then it was only able to support the middle of this century, not to mention any of the countries want to control the world's major oil reserves, Even as a military superpower like the United States have skills needed. so gold inevitable golden phoenix has the potential to become the currency of the Internet age sovereign.
China's fortunes is such magic, but vista seems to dead end, almost set the kill but why exactly can be a spectacular mm Golden China tons, accounting for only about 1% of foreign exchange reserves.
course, if China can the firm to select and implement the gold at all costs strategy, which will circumvent domestic and international crisis, China can also become one with the East Asia once played such a role.
Chinese rejection of isolationism reason is very simple, not to mention the Chinese economy with the world is so deep, as human beings, no matter what skin color, whether it is Chinese, the United States , Iranians, Africans hh we only have one Earth, we really are family.