Non-pros and cons of the demographic dividend

 He Yafu
1. Demographic changes brought about the demographic dividend
the world's population, whether or not to practice family planning, are sooner or later will experience two changes in population reproduction pattern: the first demographic transition from a fertility, high mortality and low natural growth rate the speed of population aging. This will create a children population and elderly population are relatively low proportion of the total population of the situation, and will continue for decades. The total population presents labor population, the elderly and small children, social burden is relatively light, is very beneficial to the social and economic development.
a state of total dependency ratio is the population of working age population of Africa and the ratio of working-age population. In demographic generally the total dependency ratio is less than 50% of the period known as the demographic dividend period, also known as demographic window of opportunity. into the demographic dividend during the open window of opportunity for the population, the demographic dividend period is the population out the window of opportunity close.
any The second demographic transition experienced in the country, there could be such a obvious. For example, Denmark's demographic changes began in 1780, to 1930, the population to reach often only a few decades left over developed countries a century to complete the demographic transition process, the In these 100 years, the total dependency ratio is increased and then decreased again .1950 total dependency ratio was 61%, and then gradually increased to the total dependency ratio in 1970 reached the highest point of 79%, then gradually decreased. By 1990, The total dependency ratio to 50%, the population began to open the window of opportunity. By 2010, the total dependency ratio dropped to the lowest point of 40%. Since then, due to accelerated aging of the population, the total dependency ratio will stop the decline instead began to rise. 2030 years ago, the total dependency ratio rose to 50% of the population window of opportunity begins to close. visible window of opportunity for China's population from 1990 to 2030, the last for 40 years. By 2040, China's total dependency ratio to rise to and 1950 years, as is 61%.
2. the demographic dividend is non-
however, can not say that less than 50% of the total dependency ratio is necessarily a period of demographic dividend? In my opinion, can not be generalized. mainly the following two reasons:
First, the support required for the elderly and dependent children of different social resources, the burden is also very different. States results have been compared to similar conclusions: the cost of raising an old man, the equivalent of raising 2 one to three children costs (whichever average is 2.5 children). To compare the dependency burden, dependency ratio can be converted to children aged dependency ratio, that is, old age dependency ratio is multiplied by the factor 2.5 to obtain child dependency than in the burden. For example: a state of total dependency ratio is 40%, the elderly dependency ratio and the children dependency ratio of 20% each, then we can convert to: 20% +20% x2.5 = 70%, that is, said that the country's total dependency ratio is equivalent to 70% of the children dependency ratio.
Thus, a total dependency ratio of 40% of the country, much more than the total dependency ratio is 50% of the country's dependency burden even heavier. For example to said:
A State child dependency ratio is 10%, 30% of the elderly dependency ratio, the total dependency ratio is 40%, equivalent to 10% +30% x2.5 = 85% children dependency ratio;
B Country child dependency ratio was 40%, the elderly dependency ratio of 10% of the total dependency ratio is 50%, equivalent to 40% +10% x2.5 = 65% children dependency ratio.
from the above example can be seen B Although the country's overall dependency ratio higher than the A country, but the actual dependency burden country B than in country A lighter .1950 and 2040 Although China's total dependency ratio is 61%, but the actual dependency burden is very different, because the dependency burden in 1950 mainly to child dependency ratio, while the dependency burden in 2040 mainly to elderly dependency ratio.
shows that a country's total dependency ratio above 50% though, but if the low level of aging can also be said in the demographic dividend period. For example, although China's population is from the window of opportunity began in 1990, but in the eighties of last century, the degree of aging only about 5%, it can be said that when China was still in force dividend period, the economy is developing rapidly. from the eighties began to enter China's significant increase in households; fourth of the total employment rate of population increase employment opportunities and family, promoting the growth of per capita income.
the other hand, a country's total dependency ratio is lower than the 50%, but mainly by the elderly dependency ratio if the composition, not necessarily in the demographic dividend period. For example, while in 2030, China's population was close the window of opportunity, but 20 years of this century, has a high degree of population aging, has not said that China is still in the demographic dividend of a .2015 before and after is the aging of the population will accelerate China's economic growth to some extent the long-term negative effects.
Second, the angle of the demographic dependency ratio is the theoretical dependency ratio, rather than the actual dependency ratio. The actual dependency ratio should be non-working population and employment population ratio. If the unemployment rate is too high, the working-age population can not fully employed, then the working-age population and elderly population and children are being raised as the population demographic. harvest the demographic dividend is not only the need for a relatively young and abundant workforce population, and the need for such a labor force to provide sufficient employment opportunities, but also to reap the demographic dividend will have been invested in the accumulation and development of human resources.
huge employment pressure, the long-term economic and social development in China faces prominent contradictions. In 2009, the country can provide the total number of jobs of about 12 million. from the labor supply perspective, new urban labor force in 2009 over 1300 million, of which 610 million college graduates in urban areas 360 million secondary vocational school graduates , not the beginning of studies of urban high school graduates 280 million, to be in urban resettlement of 50 million demobilized soldiers. Meanwhile, the country also carried over the previous year more than 800 million registered unemployed people, part of the working age population has actually become a dependent population.
3.
pros and cons of the demographic dividend of a country is demographic dividend period, the population has the following three features provide opportunities for development: first, the supply of labor force full, and low labor costs, making the domestic labor-intensive industries have strong international competitiveness; second is due to the younger labor force structure, making the high savings rate, if capital market integrity, can savings into investment, will accelerate economic growth; third is yet to come as the peak of aging population on social security burden light, the faster the accumulation of wealth.
demographers has been calculated that in China, a unit decline in the total dependency ratio, leading to economic growth .1982 0.115 percentage point increase to 2000, the total dependency ratio in China down 20.1%, bringing economic growth rate of 2.3% over the same period GDP per capita growth rate of 8.6%, equivalent to changes in the population growth of per capita GDP contribution of 26.8 %, or a quarter.
However, lower fertility rates through family planning and access to the demographic dividend of economic development will adversely affect:
First, as the children population decline, reducing domestic demand, while domestic demand, China's economic growth has become a major constraint resistance. Chinese products are mostly ordinary consumer goods, the absolute number of the population is the need to consume .2000 fifth census data show that: 10 to 14 years old population of 125,390,000, 5 to 9 years of age population 90,150,000, 0 to 4-year-old population of only 68,970,000, the rate of decline is very rapid. a large number of children population decline is a serious decline in the domestic Chinese market, one of the reasons.
s Second, due to less need to raise children, parents have more time to work, women's labor force participation rate is too high, resulting in increased pressure on employment. fertility decline too fast, raising children is too low, the proportion of working-age population is too large, working-age population did not result in full employment, part of the demographic dividend is wasted.
Third, artificially low fertility rate, will increase the future aging, and aging is not conducive to a serious economic development. population aging and the comparative advantage of the gradual loss of labor lead to economic slowdown, the Asian tigers and European countries have experienced in the development process. econometric model shows that the aging of one percentage point increase in the proportion of per capita income growth rate fell 0.115 percentage points may be.
birth rate to the ranks, as China's economic growth has created about 40 years of ushered in premature aging of the population that is 2030, only a short period of 40 years, while developed countries generally 80 years. in obtaining demographic transition brought about by the demographic dividend, we must also bear the rapid aging of the population and the arrival of the cost in advance. Today's demographic dividend is tomorrow's population balance to speed up the arrival of the inevitable end will accelerate its.
demographic dividend is an average of 2.1 children for couples to reach the population replacement level of generations. If the replacement level fertility rate of less than a generation, is a kind of children, parents more relaxed, because the cost savings and energy to raising children, which can be seen as a future advance or advances. overdraft consumption in the future is the need to repay with interest, the result would be increased the future burden of population, the future may be potential overdraft.
population policy, if we relax the one hand, help to promote domestic demand. more babies born now, at least to stimulate milk related to this, medical, textile, clothing, footwear, toys, home economics, early childhood education, recreation and so on industry. On the other hand, women have children back home, will naturally reduce the number of women looking for work, which ease the employment pressure. Moreover, many children are born some, more conducive to reducing the burden of future pension.