Last month of 2010, the trend of surging inflation has finally eased. According to National Bureau of Statistics data released this week show that last year a quarter to four quarters, CPI rose 2.2%, 2.9%, 3.5% and 4.7%. Although the fourth quarter of the price level is still high, but in December from November's CPI growth rate of 5.1% during the peak down to 4.6% over the price increase also by 1.1% in November fell to 0.5%.
inflation which to hang the sword in the A share market is not how many coldness? Tightening is expected to break and when?
1 CPI will return to the high
And Shenzhen, a fund manager, told reporters, said that last December the true CPI number to 6%. CPI will be how much? Administrative measures can not be sustained, but inflation will continue. This is obviously earlier than the market expected, the side we can see huge inflation, the decline in a single month of data is a representation. Stocking by the cold weather and the Spring Festival of factors, according to Commerce Department to monitor the consumption of agricultural prices that last week, hikes and have been going around.
is worth mentioning that the frequency of extreme weather around the world now, but also makes the global food security challenges. The first of the world's largest producer of wheat, drought in Huang-Huai region has given rise to great concern. Extreme weather will not affect the yield of what?
Corn is also the main producing countries cut production. A few years ago because our country is the harvest of grain, so even if we cut up less than a high degree of food security. However, this impact on prices will be relatively large, CPI's pressure is not small. For food that almost no elasticity of demand of goods, once the relevant catalyst, it is easy to form price expectations.
According to statistics, see high CPI increase in January a few. Hai Tong Securities, Shenyin that snow drought and cold weather, oil and coal and other raw materials prices have recently increased significantly, the first two months of this year CPI increase is expected to reach about 5%. The Northeast Securities is that the current wholesale price index of agricultural products and the wholesale price index basket again a clear upward trend, rising labor costs and raw material prices, such as multiple factors working together, the domestic price is hard for quick short-term drop in January CPI again more than 5% likely.
an imminent interest rate increase this year for the first time the inflation pressure was placed
directed flow control valve so that, from the is doomed to a lingering issue.
1 18 January, Premier Wen Jiabao in the first quarter to make comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools to maintain a reasonable scale and pace of social financing, to prevent the beginning of credit put in a non-normal. Earlier, the central bank on Jan. 6 for the first time proposed a
liquidity management although not specific to digital, but thought that Wang Tao, chief economist for UBS, control of bank credit alone is clearly unable to complete the task of shrinking liquidity, the central bank should be the transition to a more market-oriented control approach to managing liquidity. As the price of capital, interest rates, whether in bank credit, or bond, the stock market has a very strong guidance, can significantly affect the micro-business decision-making body. In the current time of high inflation expectations, interest rate line of credit than a more effective means of control.
and Wensheng Peng, chief economist at China International Capital Corporation, also said increasing pressure on short-term price increases, and the latest changes in the international economic environment, policy control may be mainly concentrated in the first half. Ultra-short-term inflation expectations could lead to the central bank to raise interest rates in February by 25 basis points, and raise interest rates again in the second quarter 1. analyst at Guotai Junan macro
Lvchun Jie said that M2 growth rate from the hikes and point of view, 2011 CPI may appear high to low trend, which in January and June may be localized high CPI , the central bank will increase depending on the actual CPI is likely to raise interest rates again. Third quarter of last year, showing a rapid increase in China's foreign exchange situation, 7,8,9 were added foreign exchange 170.951 billion yuan in January, 243 billion yuan, 289.565 billion yuan, while the fourth quarter, more than 12,530 new foreign exchange billion, more than 40% of total new capacity. Hiding behind the surge in the amount of hot money into the scene. Hu Yuexiao that the growing trend of high foreign exchange will continue to follow this year, which will further aggravate the pressure on liquidity regulation.
So, in addition to interest rate, which measures the central bank will take a further contraction in liquidity? Lv Chunjie expected, there may be 1-2 times the deposit reserve ratio increase, when necessary on the part of the implementation of different financial institutions deposit reserve ratio, to be monitored monthly to the credit scale, compressed sheet the size of loans, issuing more scale and longer term instruments, such as increased lending to the discount rate.
troubled stock market liquidity liquidity crunch
A shares are expected to become uneasy.
expected to strengthen and increase hot money inflows are expected to make incremental liquidity pressures significantly increased. of increase, we did not end the most terrible. Above fund manager, told reporters, at least until the U.S. no longer need to stimulate the economy. Currently, the U.S. unemployment rate is still high, consumption is not very good for Obama, is the last year, which means he has the power to continue to encourage relaxation. So now the U.S. is still the second half of next year out stimulus withdrawal is controversial. Although the United States there is no inflation problem, the use to help them absorb the world, but does not mean that the future would not be facing inflation. Now, if it continues to take such a relaxed policy to stimulate the economy, then 6-8 months later, the U.S. inflation rate is likely to face the risk of reflux.
the better signal. But the best choice is to wait, is not no chance this year, but now the opportunity is not mature.
Cheng Yimin also pointed out that not pessimistic. The possibility of the stock market to new lows I think not, or will turn on the future market valuation of concern, because pricing is based on the valuation, disclosure of the results this time, the market will go entirely according to fundamentals. No trend in market circumstances, the funds will go to those varieties with higher margin of safety, this time the price level is below a reasonable valuation of the stock we should be concerned about.
No comments:
Post a Comment